Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Albuquerque, NM

709 
WGUS75 KABQ 012053
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
253 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NMC006-012145-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190801T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cibola-
253 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTY...

At 249 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated the moderate to heavy rains 
have diminished over the warned area; however, significant runoff is 
still likely occurring. As a result, flash flooding remains a threat 
through 345 PM MDT. Additional storms may move into the region this 
afternoon, aggravating the flood threat.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Areas west of Acoma Pueblo and southwest of Skyline-Ganipa. In 
addition, flooding may impact portions of Route 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Both localized and distant heavy rainfall will create sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos and over low water crossings.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 10771 3485 10778 3479 10774 3479 10768
      3494 10755 3505 10759 3506 10764

$$

DPorter

824 
WGUS75 KABQ 012143
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
343 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NMC006-012152-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190801T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cibola-
343 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
345 PM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Significant flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat at this time; however, high water flows will remain 
a concern in the arroyos through late afternoon. Please continue to 
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3502 10771 3485 10778 3479 10774 3479 10768
      3494 10755 3505 10759 3506 10764

$$

DPorter

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1125 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The axis of monsoon moisture will creep eastward today and lead to a
larger crop of SHRA/TSRA compared to Wednesday. Storm motion will be
northeast around 15 kt. A direct hit with any storms will be capable
of producing brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in heavy rainfall, small hail,
gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning. A convective outflow is
likely to propagate eastward into the Rio Grande Valley by 23Z which
will help develop additional SHRA/TSRA within central NM thru the
evening.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon moisture increases across the western half of the state
today with good chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A
front moving in from the northeast will help share the wealth and
bring thunderstorms, some of them strong, to the northeast third of
the state on Friday. Drier air begins working in from west Texas on
Saturday, limiting chances for showers and storms across northeast
New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will favor central and western
areas on Sunday, possibly shifting to eastern areas early next week.
High temperatures will remain above average for early August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Four Corners' high shifts eastward over the Texas panhandle today,
just enough to allow moisture to increase from the south along and
west of the central mountain chain. Scattered coverage is expected,
mainly west of the RGV during the afternoon. A backdoor front drops
into northeast NM late tonight into Friday morning, resulting in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of them strong,
to the northeast third of the state while scattered showers and
storms are forecast outside of far northwest and southeast areas.
Flash flooding will be a major concern on Friday afternoon and
evening, especially for the Ute Park burn scar. Storm motion is
forecast at around 5 mph over northeast NM and with precipitable
water (PWAT) values near daily records, torrential rainfall is
possible if not likely over the northeast third of the state.

Main forecast challenge on Saturday is how much very dry air gets
entrained in the Four Corners' high circulation from the east. Most
models shut down convection across the northeast third Saturday while
the stronger storms shift to western and especially southwest NM.
GFS keeps isolated activity over the northeast highlands but it's
tough to see updrafts surviving single digit relative humidity mid-
level air. Models are in better agreement for Sunday, shutting down
convection over the eastern plains Sunday with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms anticipated central and west. Flash
flooding will once again be a concern given the slow storm motion and
near record if not record level PWATs.

Forecast confidence diminishes for early next week with global models
at odds as to how the Four Corners' evolves. As is typical this time
of year, the models struggle with how to handle a warm-core upper-
level wave/low over NM during the weekend and as a result, differ on
where the high re-establishes early next week. Models agree that
low- level moisture will remain in place through next week but differ
on on storm motion and coverage. With low-level moisture hanging in,
mountain locations will of course be favored for afternoon
convection.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper high will wobble around the state and remain over the
region for the foreseeable future, but PWATs will trend up as a
backdoor front moves southwest across the area late Friday through
Saturday. This will result in an increase in coverage of wetting
storms and humidity recovery improving to good/excellent areawide.
Daytime temperatures will trend down closer to normal over the
weekend due to an increase in cloud cover and rain-cooling, but will
trend back up going into the middle of next week as the upper high
moves back directly overhead.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
344 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

NMZ501>540-021130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
344 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall later today, mainly over western New Mexico where
localized areas of flash flooding may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor northeast
New Mexico Friday where localized very heavy rainfall is likely. The
Ute Park burn scar will be the most vulnerable as slow storm motion
combines with near record moisture levels. Scattered thunderstorm
coverage is expected elsewhere on Friday. The favored area for flash
flooding shift to central and western NM during the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

33