Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are forecast to persist outside of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Short-
lived MVFR conditions are likely, with impacts most likely at KAEG,
KABQ and KSAF. Once storms shift east of the Sandia/Manzano mountains,
gusty east canyon winds are possible between 01-06Z. Storms may
persist well after sunset near KABQ, KAEG and KSAF per the latest hi-
resolution models. Drier air will begin moving into far western NM
Friday, focusing shower and storm activity over central and eastern
NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...224 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
An uptick in storm coverage is expected this afternoon and
continuing through the weekend except in east central and southeast
portions of the state. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
the strongest and slower moving storms, and areas on and near recent
burn scars will be the most susceptible to flash flooding. Drier air
will begin to move into northwest New Mexico Sunday, significantly
reducing precipitation chances in that area. Precipitation chances
will continue to decrease across the state early next week as that
drier air continues pushing south and east. Storm activity will
likely be limited to areas south of Interstate 40 Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will generally be near normal through the weekend
before rising above normal early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper-level high continues to slowly migrate south and west and
is currently centered just east of Crownpoint near the NM/AZ border.
A few disturbances embedded in the flow of the high will move into
north central and northeast New Mexico through the weekend, and an
uptick in storm coverage is expected through Sunday as a result. The
first of those disturbances will track east and southeast through
northern NM this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is likely with the
strongest and slower moving storms, and a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect until midnight tonight for portions of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, mainly for the burn scars, where that disturbance will
move through. Storm motion will generally be to the southeast.

The high will continue its journey south and west Friday and will
generally be centered over southeast AZ/southwest NM before moving a
bit further west into central AZ Saturday. Storms will continue to
favor the northern and southwestern mountains each day with outflow
boundaries helping to initiate activity in valley locations. Due to
this setup, the east central and southeastern plains will likely
continue to miss out on any storm activity.

The second weak disturbance will move across the central Rockies
Saturday, and as it exits the area, it will send a backdoor cold
front through the eastern plains late Sunday. Meanwhile, the upper
high will be well to the west of New Mexico, and drier air working
around the high will begin to move into northwest NM. Precipitation
chances will be significantly reduced across the NW Sunday and will
primarily be focused along the higher terrain of northern and
southwestern NM.

It will be all about the placement of the high next week. Both the
GFS and ECMWF agree that the high will begin building back east near
the NM/CO border Monday. Unfortunately, that drier air will continue
to push farther into the state, and precipitation chances will be
significantly reduced both Monday and Tuesday. The best chances for
storm activity will likely be along and near the higher terrain south
of Interstate 40. PoPs gradually increase again mid to late next
week as the upper high potentially migrates east near the OK
Panhandle, allowing monsoon moisture to gradually work its way back
into western NM.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The wetting footprint of today's round of convection will be greater
than yesterday's for much of northern and western New Mexico as the
upper high is shifting south along the AZ/NM border and easterly
steering flow takes storms off of the higher terrain and into nearby
highlands/valleys. Friday still looks to hold the greatest potential
for soaking rains as PWATs spike above normal. The focus for wetting
storms will shift east Saturday and more-so on Sunday as dry
northwest flow penetrates far into central New Mexico. The upper
high is forecast to drift east and set up over the CO/NM border
early next week then stay there through the work-week, leading to a
warming and drying trend with a significant convective downtrend.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ513-515-527.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
419 AM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

NMZ501>540-261100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
419 AM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential exists for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
mainly in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon and evening.
Areas below recent burn scars will be especially vulnerable. Please
review the latest Flash Flood Watch for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to return to the
northern, western and central mountains Friday and Saturday. Movement
will be southeastward over adjacent lowlands. Storm motions will be
slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized
areas of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars.
Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall with
locally higher amounts. A few storms may also produce small hail and
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Similar weather is expected Sunday across
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Northeast Highlands.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
506 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

NMZ507-252330-
West Central Highlands-
506 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CIBOLA AND
NORTHWESTERN VALENCIA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 506 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mesita, or near Laguna Pueblo, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mesita.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 113 and 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 10744 3513 10722 3493 10710 3491 10711
      3490 10712 3488 10711 3483 10735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 245DEG 9KT 3495 10732

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

NMZ504-506-260000-
West Central Mountains-Northwest Highlands-
524 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles north of San Mateo, or 35 miles northeast of Grants. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
McKinley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 10760 3567 10762 3574 10737 3547 10734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 264DEG 4KT 3559 10753

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
615 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

NMZ507-519-260045-
West Central Highlands-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro
Area-
615 PM MDT Thu Jul 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 615 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Zia Pueblo, or 16 miles northwest of Rio Rancho,
moving northwest at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Sandoval County.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 10687 3540 10678 3532 10693 3540 10700
      3545 10702 3547 10699 3549 10695 3551 10692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 139DEG 5KT 3542 10690

34

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