Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Las Vegas, NV

091 
WWUS55 KVEF 110406
SVSVEF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
906 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

NVC017-023-110416-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-180811T0415Z/
Lincoln NV-Nye NV-
906 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM PDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3775 11529 3685 11506 3685 11574 3684 11574
      3684 11589 3674 11590 3675 11663 3740 11667
      3775 11652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 359DEG 36KT 3661 11602 

$$

Wolcott

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
624 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances will remain in areas roughly
along and east of a line from Barstow to Rachel on Saturday, then
shift to areas north and east of Las Vegas for Sunday through early
next week. Temperatures will drop to near normal over the weekend
into early next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM...5 PM through 12 AM PST

Low confidence in the convective evolution this evening. There are a
few areas of interest:

1) LINCOLN COUNTY - A cluster thunderstorms are moving southward and
expected to continue to do so over the next several hours. These
storms may continue well into the evening, but their survival will
strongly depend on whether a cohesive cold pool becomes established.

2) MOHAVE COUNTY/Eastern CLARK COUNTY - Intensifying storms east of
Flagstaff along I-40 will pose a threat to at least Mohave County
through the evening and potentially southern Nevada and eastern San
Bernardino late this evening. A more defined cold pool is expected
across these areas, which may allow new convection with elevated
instability in place (MUCAPE values between 1200-1800 J/kg).

Strong outflows between 40-50 MPH will be possible in these areas,
which may reach Las Vegas/Lake Mead NRA between 9pm-12am. Dust
storms will also be possible again, especially across Mohave County,
as outflow sweeps over dust sources. Limiting factors for convection
surviving through the evening will be how quickly cold pools can
become established before daytime heating is lost. We will update
the forecast as trends evolve this evening. Stay tuned.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
242 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night. Thus far, early afternoon
thunderstorms were limited to northern Lincoln County. Cumulus
clouds were starting to build over the mountains of northern Inyo,
northern and central Nye, Clark, and Mohave counties. Thus far,
storms over Arizona have been farther south than yesterday, lending
credence to the cluster of high resolution models which deliver only
a glancing blow to the southeast corner of Mohave County later this
evening. However, there is still a chance of storms developing
farther north and affecting more of Mohave County, so kept precip
chances there as well. Either way, a large outflow boundary is
likely to affect some portions of Mohave, Clark, and San Bernardino
counties tonight. For tomorrow, models show more activity over
Lincoln, Mohave, and Clark counties, as well as the Sierra crest.
Previous forecast looked good and made only minor tweaks.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.

On Sunday, mid level ridge over the Great Basin/Mojave Desert is
sandwiched between an upper low around the Texas Panhandle and the
remnant mid level circulation from what was Hurricane John well off
the southern California coast. Between today and Sunday, models not
showing any new influx of moisture with precipitable water values of
an inch or greater staying confined to parts of San Bernardino,
southeast Inyo, southern Nye, Clark and Mohave Counties. Greatest
instability lies across Mohave County/Colorado River Valley Sunday.
Northeast steering flow around the high center will steer storms off
the higher terrain of central Arizona south-southwest into the lower
deserts of Mohave County/lower Colorado River. Models suggesting
some possible drying from the southwest Monday-Wednesday with a
slight chance of storms mainly occuring over the southern Sierra,
east across south central Nevada and Mohave County. By Thursday and
Friday, area could see an uptick in activity as additional moisture
surges northward into the lower Colorado River/Mojave Desert in
association with an inverted trough. Kept temperatures near normal
during the period.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds should remain mostly light and
variable through the afternoon hours. Another possibility for
convection originating in north-central Arizona this evening could
again bring gusty southeast winds to LAS this evening. Timing a
little less certain across model solutions and amendments may be
needed to hone in on timing this evening. Again, similar to last
night, these winds should subside into the overnight hours returning
to light winds by the morning hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast
California...diurnal patterns will continue for KBIH and KDAG.
Thunderstorm outflow will again be possible for KEED and KIFP as
another round of convection looks likely in north-central AZ. These
winds could reach as far north as the Las Vegas Valley as well
impacting both KVGT and KHND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$ NEAR TERM...Boothe
SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Boucher

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