Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Las Vegas, NV

921 
WWUS85 KVEF 162041
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service FLAGSTAFF AZ
141 PM PDT Wed May 16 2018

A low pressure system will move into central California today
bringing increasing winds to combine with low RH and dry
conditions. Improving conditions are expected tonight with near
critical conditions possible on Thursday.

AZZ102-170300-
/O.CON.KVEF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180517T0300Z/
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-
141 PM MST Wed May 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Arizona...Fire weather zone 102.

* TIMING...Expect strong winds through the early evening. Winds 
  decrease this evening and RH levels recover above critical 
  values overnight.

* WIND...Southwest 20 to 30 MPH with gusts around 35 MPH

* HUMIDITY...Dropping into the single digits this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$


weather.gov/lasvegas

017 
WWUS85 KVEF 170247
RFWVEF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
747 PM PDT Wed May 16 2018

AZZ102-170400-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180517T0300Z/
Northwest Deserts/Northwest Plateau-
747 PM MST Wed May 16 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102...

Winds have started to subside while humidity values start their
gradual overnight recovery. Maximum humidity values should
recover to 25 to 35 percent tonight. The Red Flag Warning will be
allowed to expire at 8 pm MST. 

$$


weather.gov/lasvegas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
830 PM PDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system over northern Nevada will
interact with a second system approaching from the west and lift
away from the area overnight. The second system will move into
the area later this week bringing an increase in winds ahead of it
and keep temperatures seasonal with more unsettled weather over
the Sierra and central Nevada.
&&

.UPDATE...Tranquil weather this evening with generally clear skies
and dry conditions across the region.  Only exception is across far
western Esmeralda county where some isolated showers remain possible
for another hour or two.   Overall, the current forecast is in good
shape and I made no major changes.  Pleasant conditions on tap again
tomorrow.

-Outler-

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday Night.

Very little change to the short term today. Circulation over
northern NV will lift north overnight with another, slightly
deeper system coming quickly on its heels. As far as sensible
weather, temperatures and winds will increase again tomorrow as
the first low drifts away, then cool again Thursday. Shower
chances will remain limited to the Sierra and central Nevada, with
a slight increase in activity possible on Thursday as the low
moves into the area. Model agreement remains suboptimal for the
system on Thursday, so the details of just how much of an uptick
in convection to expect is still unclear.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

Same song, third verse. Still dealing with quite a bit of model
disagreement this morning, so confidence remains below average,
and again made only minor nudges to the forecast due to the
uncertainty. The overall pattern still suggests chances for
afternoon thunderstorms and nighttime showers over the southern
Great Basin, but still have little or no confidence in the day to
day details of precip placement. Still expecting temperatures to
climb a few degrees above normal in the Mojave Desert over the
weekend. One item of note is that the operational models are in
very good agreement with a closed low spinning into southern
California on Monday, which would bring cooler temperatures and
chances for showers and thunderstorms to our area if it verified.
However, the ensemble members agree on the existence of this low,
but not on its placement or depth. Solutions range from the Baja
peninsula to north of Reno, so made only minor tweaks to
temperatures Monday and Tuesday, and did not increase PoPs. Will
see if there is better consensus tomorrow.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds are expected to remain
overnight and through Wednesday morning. Southwest winds will
increase Wednesday afternoon with speeds 14-24 kts expected after
20z. Only a few afternoon flat cumulus around 12k feet are expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Low pressure over northern Nevada will generate a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms over central Nevada with cloud
bases generally 8-10k feet. Across southern Nevada, southeast
California and northwest Arizona skies will remain generally clear.
Southwest winds are expected to increase Wednesday with speeds in
the afternoon 10-20 kts.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolcott
LONG TERM....Morgan
AVIATION.....Gorelow

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