Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Las Vegas, NV

412 
WGUS75 KVEF 152235
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
335 PM MST SUN JUL 15 2018

AZC015-152244-
/O.CAN.KVEF.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180716T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
335 PM MST SUN JUL 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended in the Colorado City area. The fire 
department reported no flooding, and flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3695 11292 3695 11313 3699 11313 3700 11298
      3700 11292

$$

Morgan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
213 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms will begin to diminish around Sunset
this evening. Storms that develop through the rest of the
afternoon will be capable of producing localized flash flooding
and gusty winds. Rain chances will continue to decrease Monday
before increasing Tuesday and through the rest of the week.
Temperatures will rise up to near seasonal normals for much of the
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.

TONIGHT: So far things have developed much slower with convection
remaining fairly weak and mostly isolated to the higher terrain in
Clark, Mohave, Esmeralda, Lincoln and Nye Counties. This is a
response to ridge of high pressure nosing in from the Pacific which
has brought increased subsidence over the area. Thunderstorms will
continue to favor the terrain through the afternoon while increasing
in strength across Mohave County; although storm motion is weak at
around 5-10 MPH, storms that develop will slowly move southeast,
except across Mohave County where outflow propagation will aid a
westward storm motion. Given weak steering flow and possible
anchored/training storms over the terrain along very moist airmass,
flooding will be concern today. The other concern going with
afternoon storms will moderate outflow winds. DCAPE will continue to
increase in most areas over the next several hours, so even weak
convection may produce sudden, gusty outflows. Convection will wane
this evening with the loss of diurnal heating, however CAMs indicate
convection across Esmeralda County may persist into the evening.

MONDAY: There will be chance of showers early Monday morning across
far southern Mohave County as a MCV develops from Sunday's residual
convection over central Arizona. Otherwise, diurnal trends will be
similar to Sunday with less thunderstorm coverage as the ridge firmly
positions itself over the forecast area. With increasing heights
will come a bump in temperatures. No excessive heat products are in
effect Overall, afternoon highs will run about 2-4 degrees above
normal but with the moisture it will feel very hot, especially for
heat sensitive groups.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

After another relatively down day Tuesday, the aforementioned
easterly wave will move through the area WED which should increase
thunderstorm activity areawide through THU. The latest GFS isn't
quite as hefty with bulk shear values like yesterday's run, but
DCAPE values are +1500 J/kg for most of the area WED-THU. With
sufficient DCAPE values the threat with storms would still be strong
outflows capable of producing strong to severe winds. As the wave
moves off the west coast WED-THU the high pressure overhead will
begin to shift eastward, eventually moving over New Mexico and west
Texas by late week. The eastward placement of the high should result
in some dry air off the SoCal coast to filter in across southwestern
portions of our CWA by FRI. Lingering moisture combined with daytime
heating will still allow for thunderstorms to develop mainly along
higher terrain FRI afternoon. Beyond FRI, models begin to differ in
the placement of the high, but overall they seem to be trending
toward shifting the high pressure center back over the four corners
region by the weekend, which would lead to more scattered
thunderstorm activity across the area.

Besides storm chances, expect light winds less than 10 mph,
temperatures near normal for mid July and partly sunny to partly
cloudy skies.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Outside of convective influence, light
winds below 10 knots will continue across the terminal through the
afternoon. There will be potential this afternoon and evening for
outflow boundaries impacting the terminal. There is low confidence
on direction or speed with outflow. Convection will diminish this
evening and light winds will persist overnight. Similar conditions
are expected Monday. CIGs should remain above 10k feet.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the
higher terrain will continue through the afternoon and wane this
evening. Sudden, gusty outflows will be possible with storms that
develop. Outside of thunderstorm influences, winds will follow
diurnal trends with speeds of 5-15 knots. CIGs at or above 10k feet;
CIGs may drop to 5-7 k feet with any convection that develops near
an airfield.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Boothe
LONG TERM.............Kryston

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