Flash Flood Warning 137, NWS Las Vegas, NV

392 
WGUS75 KVEF 022242
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
342 PM PDT TUE OCT 2 2018

NVC009-023-030000-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0137.000000T0000Z-181003T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nye NV-Esmeralda NV-
342 PM PDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM PDT FOR
WESTERN NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES...

At 336 PM PDT, Satellite and lightning data indicate storms in this 
region have weakened and the area of concern is shifting east. 
However, additional thunderstorm activity downstream could make its 
way to the warned area and bring additional rain to the region 
through 5 pm. Continue to use caution when traveling in this area.

Some locations within the warning area include...Dyer, Coaldale, 
Silver Peak, Fish Lake Valley Campground, Junction CA 266 And NV 
264, Boundary Peak and Montgomery Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 11723 3736 11769 3789 11843 3789 11835
      3847 11769

$$

JS

166 
WGUS75 KVEF 022353
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
453 PM PDT TUE OCT 2 2018

NVC009-023-030001-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0137.000000T0000Z-181003T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nye NV-Esmeralda NV-
453 PM PDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM PDT...

The heavy rain has ended and flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. However, please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3805 11723 3736 11769 3789 11843 3789 11835
      3847 11769

$$

JS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
850 AM PDT Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rosa
will lead to locally heavy rain this afternoon, with the main threat
for areas east of Las Vegas. Rain chances will taper off tonight,
then increase again Wednesday as another storm system approaches.
Areas from roughly Las Vegas southeast will see a chance of severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additional storm
systems will keep cool and unsettled weather over the region late
this week into the weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...Updated the forecast this morning mainly to scale back
PoPs through the late morning as the radar is largely devoid of
activity aside from some light showers lifting across Mohave and
eastern Lincoln county.  Meanwhile, breaks in the clouds indicated
on visible satellite have been increasing across eastern California
and much of southern Nevada, which should provide a favorable window
for destabilization by early this afternoon. We still anticipate
terrain driven showers and thunderstorms to form across much of the
region later this afternoon, and given the highly anomalous
atmospheric moisture content in place, brief heavy downpours will
remain possible. However, with the lack of forcing in place,
coverage will likely only be isolated to scattered.

Looking further west, a strong jet streak is beginning to nudge into
the southern Sierra and will continue to push eastward today. This
will place much of Northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye
counties in the favorable left exit region of the jet streak, a
location favored for strong vertical lift. In addition, breaks in
the clouds and cooler temperatures aloft will be more favorable for
vigorous convection than points east. As such, I boosted PoPs in
those areas and anticipate the potential for a few stronger storms
in that region later this afternoon.

-Outler-

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday night. Very juicy airmass remains in
place this morning, with precipitable water values up to 1.8 inches
in Bullhead City. However, with the remnants of Hurricane Rosa
moving farther east than predicted a couple of days ago, and the
upper low off the Pacific coast lingering back farther west than
previously thought, our area is caught in between in a zone of
little or no forcing to lift the moist air. Thus, heavy rainfall has
not materialized. The best forcing today should be near and east of
the Colorado River Valley, with perhaps a secondary zone over
Lincoln County. With that in mind, trimmed back the Flash Flood
Watch, dropping it for areas including Las Vegas, Baker, and the
Morongo Basin. Thanks to WFOs LKN and PSR for coordination on this.
The deep moisture will depart this evening and tonight, but then a
new wrinkle develops Wednesday. The aforementioned Pacific low
swings inland as a negatively tilted trough, bringing deep layer
shear and upper level difluence. This, plus the lingering low level
moisture and drier mid level air, will lead to a risk of severe
storms with large hail and high winds, with the best chance being
roughly from Las Vegas southeastward through Kingman and much of
Mohave County. Thunderstorm chances will end from southwest to
northeast Wednesday evening and Wednesday night, with lingering
showers possible Thursday in an arc extending from Bishop to far
northern Clark County to eastern Mohave County. The northern stream
remains active, with another, weaker wave swinging through Thursday
night and Friday, keeping cool and unsettled conditions in place.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds this morning
will become easterly mid to late this morning with speeds of 7-10
knots for much of the afternoon. Showers and isolated storms will be
possible around the valley between 15z-23z today. Ceilings have
already begun to lower to 4k-8k feet which is expected to continue
through around 17z. After 17z, cigs could drop as low as 1k-3k feet
through 22z when IFR cigs should begin to break up under a more BKN-
OVC deck at 6k-8k feet into this evening. Confidence is low in this
IFR deck becoming BKN to OVC in coverage. Tonight prevailing
southwesterly winds are expected at 8-11 knots through Wednesday
morning with continues cigs at 7k-8k feet possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Showers with potential embedded lightning strikes will
spread northward across Mohave County into Clark and eastern San
Bernardino counties this morning and continue to affect these areas
throughout the afternoon. A second area of scattered storms will
develop over Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln counties during the
afternoon and evening. Cigs could lower to 3k-6k feet throughout the
morning and afternoon across much of the area. Winds will favor the
southerly direction; increasing to 15 knots gusting 20 knots across
western San Bernardino, southern Inyo, and the southern Great Basin
this afternoon and evening.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall will be possible today, especially along and
east of the Colorado River. We encourage spotters to report any
significant weather or impacts in your area.
&&

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Guillet

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter