Dust Storm Warning 10, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1257 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dangerous heat will continues through Saturday.
A general downward trend in thunderstorm activity will occur
through tomorrow. Increasing moisture and instability could mean
an uptick in thunderstorm activity Sunday and Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Aside from the excessive heat, we are watching for the development
of convective activity as we head into the afternoon hours.
Mesoscale analysis indicates an axis of high dewpoints roughly in
a line from south-central Lincoln County down through northern
Mohave County. Mid-level lapse rates are still quite steep despite
the fact that the high pressure aloft is building in a subsidence
inversion aloft. The main access of instability (and therefore
threat of thunderstorms) exists from SE Lincoln County south to
Mesquite and down to the Kingman area where these two paramenters
are coincident. This is the area we are watching for development.
Aloft there is fairly strong west to east flow which should give
any thunderstorms a general west to east movement. Flooding is a
secondary threat. Wind gusts are the major concern. Outflow under
the regime has shown a propensity to produce severe level gusts. A
dust storm in central Mohave County is also not out of the
question.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tomorrow through Monday.

Excessive heat to continue through Saturday. A slight downward
trend in temperatures is expected on Sunday and Monday. However,
there are also indications that another wave of moisture will
ride in on an upper level disturbance from the southeast on Sunday
into Monday. This will trend thunderstorm chances up again for
the later half of the weekend and early portions of the week.
Expect mainly isolated mountain thunderstorms with Mohave County
being the primary focus area. Wind will be the primary threat but
there could be localized flash flooding as well.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Thursday.

More of the same expected through the long term as the large high
pressure ridge which has dominated our weather pattern the past week
remains parked overhead.  Meanwhile, a couple of opportunities for
modest moisture surges will result in a mix of active versus
suppressed monsoon days.  Tuesday in particular looks fairly moist
across the region as an inverted trough lifts through Mojave desert
and into California, thereafter moisture will linger but large scale
forcing will be more limited, with storm activity relying on terrain
and outflow boundary interactions.  As such, increased PoPs for much
of the area Tuesday but kept them mainly in the slight chance/chance
category and favoring the higher terrain.  Wednesday onward daily
thunderstorm chances continue over the terrain, with decreased
chances in the Valley. Temperatures will remain several degrees
above normal through the period.
&&

.CLIMATE...Near record temperatures are expected again on Saturday.
The table below shows the record highs and the year recorded for
McCarran (Las Vegas), Death Valley, Needles, Barstow/Daggett,
Bishop and Kingman.

                    RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (YEAR)
                    ----------
                    SAT(7/28)
LOCATION            ----------

McCarran        |   115(2016)
Death Valley    |   126(2016)
Needles         |   119(2016)
Barstow/Daggett |   117(1995)
Bishop          |   108(2016)
Kingman         |   108(2016)
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Slight chances for isolated
thunderstorm activity around the valley today, with the possibility
of gusty outflow winds reaching KLAS later this afternoon. Though,
confidence remains low. Besides storm chances, winds should remain
light and follow typical diurnal trends today and tomorrow. Hot
temperatures of over 110 degrees are expected to continue both today
and tomorrow with FEW to SCT skies aoa 15 kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Some slight chances for isolated thunderstorm activity
exist for KBIH, KVGT, and KHND today, which may create gusty outflow
winds that could reach the terminals. Besides storm chances, winds
should remain light and follow typical diurnal trends today and
tomorrow across the region. Hot temperatures are expected to
continue both today and tomorrow with FEW to SCT skies aoa 10-12
kft.
&&

Near Term/Short Term...Lericos
Aviation...Kryston
Long Term/Climate....Outler

&&

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