Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
521 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Current upper level analysis has broad ridging across the central
CONUS with a couple of shortwaves topping the ridge across the
northern Plains. Regional radar has a severe storm over the Black
Hills at the moment, and additional storms in north central
Wyoming. At the surface, weak low pressure is located across
western SD with warm front south and east of the Black Hills. Low
surface trof extends south into eastern Colorado. Temperatures at
2pm are in the 80s with winds out of the east to southeast.

South-southeast winds to the south and east of the Black Hills
will continue to keep 60s dewpoints in place across a good portion
of western and south central SD, with 50s dewpoints elsewhere as
winds switch to northerly across northeast WY behind the surface
low. Plenty of energy available this afternoon, and most of the
area is in the marginal to slight risk for severe storms, with an
area of enhanced risk over portions of southwest into south
central SD late today and this evening. The main threats from
severe storms will be large hail and strong wind gusts, turning
into more of a wind threat during the evening as the activity
likely merges into a MCS somewhere toward central SD. There is
also a minimal threat for tornadoes through early evening east of
the Black Hills. Activity will eventually end overnight with lows
in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday will be another very warm day, with highs in the 80s to
lower 90s. Frontal boundary looks like it will be in place from
northeast WY to western and central NE. Plenty of moisture will
remain to the northeast of the boundary. The ridge will shift east
of the region as trof moves into the Pacific NW. Upper level
support for storms does not look as favorable on Saturday, but
cannot rule out isolated storms over the Black Hills in the
afternoon and across much of western SD Saturday night as low
level jet intensifies. Any storms that develop have the potential
to be strong to severe with moisture remaining in place.

As the upper level trof moves into southwest Canada late in the
weekend, a cold front will push east across the Northern Plains
Sunday night. Looks like most of the thunderstorm activity will
stay north and west of the area, but isolated storms are certainly
a possibility with the frontal passage. Ahead of the front on
Sunday, highs will be in the 80s, with 90s to the east of the
Black Hills.

The cold front will bring much cooler and drier air for early next
week as the upper trof passes to the north of the region. Highs
look to mostly be in the 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Ridging is
expected to build across the Rockies midweek and eventually move
east into the Plains late week, bringing warmer air back to the
region. The potential for at least isolated storms should return
mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 520 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across much
of this area through the evening. Brief IFR vsbys within any
thunderstorm. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected outside any
storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
404 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

SDZ031-032-042>044-046-047-049-091300-
Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-
Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
404 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018 /504 AM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...and southwestern South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight.
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms. Large hail,
damaging winds and locally heavy rain will be the main threat. There
is also a small threat for tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day through the weekend.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ013-014-024>030-041-072>074-WYZ057-058-091300-
Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-Northern Black Hills-
Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-Southern Foot Hills-
Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-Custer Co Plains-
Fall River-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
404 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...the Black Hills of
South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Large hail,
damaging winds and locally heavy rain will be the main threat.
There is also a small threat for tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day through the weekend.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ001-002-012-WYZ054>056-071-091300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Northeastern Crook-
404 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...and northeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Large hail,
damaging winds and locally heavy rain will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day through the weekend.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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