Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
515 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

An upper level trough covers the western CONUS, and a
weak wave is pushing through the northern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed across parts of far western SD.
Surface trough is moving into the CWA, and winds ahead of the
trough are breezy across west central SD. Temperatures are rising
into the 80s, and dew points are in the 50s and lower 60s.

A potent shortwave associated with the upper trough will cross the
CWA this afternoon and evening, sparking thunderstorms across much
of the area. MLCAPE is already 1500-2000 J/kg over much of the area,
and 0-6 km shear is 30-40 kts across northwestern SD. Hi-res
convective models are showing thunderstorms expanding around the
SD/WY border early this afternoon, forming an MCS as the wave shifts
eastward. Inverted-V soundings support strong wind gusts, and large
hail will also be a possibility. PW values of 150-200% of normal
suggest heavy rain, and flooding may be a concern, especially for
areas that have recently received plentiful moisture. Storms will
shift into eastern SD after midnight.

Low-level trough will linger over the region Friday. Cooler air will
start to push into the CWA from the northwest with a cold front,
while southerly flow across southern and central SD will keep
temperatures warm, allowing instability to redevelop. Another round
of thunderstorms is expected along and southeast of the front.
Decent CAPE and shear will allow for a few marginally strong storms,
especially across southwestern to central SD.

Showers will persist across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA
Saturday, as the low very slowly transitions from eastern CO into KS
and eastern NE. As cold air wraps into the low, highs Saturday will
be only in the 50s, with lows Saturday night dipping into the 30s
and 40s.

The low finally starts moving out of the region Sunday, and a
warming trend will begin as ridging develops. Meanwhile, another
strong low pressure system will develop over the western states,
which will bring more storm activity to the region towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 508 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

Thunderstorms will continue across much of the area tonight,
gradually shifting eastward. Severe storms are expected, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some MVFR ceilings will move
into the northwestern CWA Friday morning, and northwesterly winds
will become breezy. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop
across much of the area in the afternoon. Some storms could be
strong to severe again.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Pojorlie

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
404 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>026-028-029-072>074-WYZ056>058-071-181300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-
Northeastern Crook-
404 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
South Dakota...southwestern South Dakota...the Black Hills of
South Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Friday and then again early next
week. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a stronger
storm or two is possible with gusty winds and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-181300-
Southern Foot Hills-Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-
Fall River-Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
404 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018 /504 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...and southwestern South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for additional severe storms on Friday. Some of
these storms may contain large hail and strong winds. Otherwise,
the next chance for thunderstorms will be early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ054-055-181300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
404 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Widespread severe storms are not expected, but small hail and
gusty winds are possible with stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through
next week. At this time, the threat for severe thunderstorms
looks to be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
719 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2018

WYZ054-180200-
Northern Cambell WY-
719 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 719 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Recluse, or 40 miles southwest of Broadus, moving east
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Campbell County.

LAT...LON 4500 10581 4500 10561 4477 10561 4478 10600
      4499 10602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 279DEG 11KT 4491 10579

Eagan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
722 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.35N 105.54W
05/17/2018  M66 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   ASOS

&&

EAGAN

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