Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
924 PM MST Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect well-above normal to near record temperatures
this afternoon. Abundant moisture and a favorable flow regime will
bring periods of thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend. Locally
heavy rainfall may occur at times. Daytime temperatures will
moderate closer to seasonal normals due to increased moisture and
thunderstorm activity Wednesday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The combination of a nice hot day, some added
moisture thanks to a gulf surge and dynamics aloft led to a very
active late afternoon into this evening. Latest HRRR runs keep
shower and thunderstorm activity going into the early morning
hours of Wednesday. Main threat for the rest of tonight will be
heavy rainers but can't rule out one storm getting rather strong.
See previous discussion for additional information on the rest of
the forecast which looks active for the remainder of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
Scattered TSRA/SHRA will continue into the overnight hours,
gradually decreasing in coverage toward Wednesday morning. SCT-
BKN cloud bases generally 8k-15k ft AGL through the period.
Variable surface winds hold less than 15 kts, but gusty erratic
winds will accompany strong TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Plentiful moisture continues to push into the
state, setting up an ideal pattern for thunderstorm development into
the weekend. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible. 20-ft
winds in western Pima County should strengthen for a brief period
tonight, with otherwise terrain driven flow at less than 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Hurricane John is currently spinning south of
the tip of Baja California with category 2 max sustained winds of
105 mph. It is progged to become a major hurricane (>110 mph max
sustained winds) by the next forecast update from the NHC. Though
John will remain out to sea/west of the Baja, additional moisture
will be advected north and northeastward into Arizona over the
next several days. This will be compounded by strong ridging over
the western CONUS and quasistationary high pressure located over
eastern Nevada or western Utah, putting Arizona under easterly
flow. As a result, a marked upswing in showers and thunderstorms
across southeast Arizona will occur into the upcoming weekend with
PoPs above climo for most locations. The exact timing and
locations are TBD, but model solutions are favoring late
evening/overnight activity into Saturday morning.

Early next week after John is well out to sea, lingering moisture
and a favorable flow regime will sustain daily chances of scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers/tstms. Today will be the last
day of triple digit temps for probably at least a week, with highs
cooling off several degrees into early next week with the increase
in moisture, cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
742 PM MST TUE AUG 7 2018

AZZ507-513-080315-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
742 PM MST TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MST...

At 742 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Bisbee, moving west at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista Southeast and Tombstone.

LAT...LON 3173 10993 3155 10994 3153 11017 3176 11015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 094DEG 10KT 3165 11000

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
806 PM MST TUE AUG 7 2018

AZZ505-080345-
South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
806 PM MST TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM MST...

At 804 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm outflow
from a strong thunderstorm east of Florence. Area of blowing dust
with visibilities briefly less than one mile will move across
Interstate 10 in the next half hour.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and blowing dust will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Eloy, Picacho Peak, Red Rock and Picacho.

LAT...LON 3263 11117 3252 11144 3275 11163 3281 11155
      3284 11154 3294 11139
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 053DEG 17KT 3292 11138 3267 11125

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
820 PM MST TUE AUG 7 2018

AZZ507-513-080400-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
820 PM MST TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM MST...

At 819 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Sierra Vista, moving west at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and
may lead to localized small stream flooding. Frequent cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Huachuca City, Sierra Vista Southeast, Tombstone, Fort
Huachuca, Fairbank, Charleston and Whetstone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 11010 3160 11000 3143 11044 3167 11044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 081DEG 17KT 3164 11020

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