Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 PM MST Thu Jul 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...As high pressure moves to the northwest, temperatures
will fall back to normal levels over the next few days. An
increase in moisture will bring a better chance of thunderstorms
Friday into early next week. Some storms will generate heavy rain
and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong high that brought record heat to the area
earlier this week continues to weaken and shift west and northwest
of our area this afternoon. The resulting northeasterly flow and
organized outflows are guiding storms off the Mogollon Rim and
southern White Mountains toward valley locations, but unfavorable
surface based and mixed layer convective inhibition is still
expected to be difficult to overcome. Best storm chances should
remain east of Tucson. Temperatures are down as expected, but
still several degrees above average.

The increasing easterly component to our flow will once again
bring us a period where storm flow and structure is enhanced.
Initial upstream 700-500mb moisture is favorable, but it may start
to struggle with some dry air intrusion from the northeast by the
middle of next week unless we can convince the high to
reconsolidate near the 4-corners region instead of northwest of
our area. GEFS plumes suggest precipitable water values back up
to around 1.6+ inches Friday night with elevated levels into the
weekend. By Monday night the operational GFS still has
precipitable water well above average (suggesting 1.7 inches), but
this is not supported by GEFS plumes or ensemble means. So we'll
go with the elevated thunderstorm coverage Friday afternoon
through the weekend, but slow things down to climatology by
Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL
through the evening. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA are expected
this afternoon and evening mainly east and south of KTUS. SFC wind
NWLY at 10-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts through 27/04Z before
becoming light and terrain driven overnight. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening
mainly east and south of Tucson. A better flow pattern will allow
for an increase of thunderstorm chances Friday and into the weekend.
Aside from the breeziness across the area for the rest of this
evening, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and generally under 15
mph. An exception will be in and around thunderstorms where gusty
outflow winds will be likely.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer/Pegram

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
322 PM MST THU JUL 26 2018

AZZ509-510-262245-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
322 PM MST THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MST...

At 321 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 29
miles east of San Carlos, or 36 miles northwest of Safford, moving
south at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arsenic Tubs.

LAT...LON 3345 11009 3344 10985 3317 10980 3321 11014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 010DEG 17KT 3331 10995

JKP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 PM MST THU JUL 26 2018

AZZ509-510-262315-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
328 PM MST THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM MST...

At 328 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Safford, moving south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Thatcher, Pima, Solomon, Fort Thomas and Swift Trail
Junction.

LAT...LON 3314 10988 3304 10954 3268 10946 3286 11014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 000DEG 15KT 3300 10974

GL

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