Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 16, 2018

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 16, 2018, 3:48 PM MST. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2018, 3:48 PM MST (22:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2018, 4:30 PM MST
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 16, 2:35 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:35 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 PM MST Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Plenty of moisture and instability will remain in
place to support daily showers and thunderstorms through at least
the middle of the week. Some storms will generate strong winds
and heavy rain. Partial drying from the east may lead to reduced
thunderstorm coverage by the weekend, along with hotter
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Daytime heating in combination with an inverted trough
approaching the area were aiding in the development of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon in the mountains. A strengthening
steering flow from the northeast to east in association with the
approaching inverted trough will also help storms to move into the
valleys today. Recent HRRR solutions supported the notion of storms
tracking into lower deserts of Pima and Pinal counties this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern, but the environment
will also support strong thunderstorm winds. Models were in
agreement with tracking the inverted trough through northern Mexico
tonight and Tuesday with less of an influence for tomorrow's
thunderstorm potential. High pressure aloft will become established
over the Great Basin region around Wednesday before shifting over
the Desert Southwest this coming weekend. This adjustment in the
position of the upper high will result in some warming and drying
aloft by the end of the week. This warmer and drying will eventually
translate to less thunderstorm activity and hotter daytime
temperatures by week's end.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA through late this evening can be
expected. Cloud bases 8k-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN clouds above 20k.
Winds remain below 12 kts through the period, with stronger gusts
possible around TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active weather pattern will continue to produce
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Toward the middle of the week, a shift begins to take place
bringing in drier air and reducing rain chances. However, isolated
storms could still develop, especially over the higher terrain.
Temperatures also gradually warm through the week. 20-ft winds
remain below 15 mph, although the Upper Gila River Valley will
experience gustier northwesterly winds at times.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 2:57 PM MST, 51 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
257 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ503-507-513-162230-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
257 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MST...

At 256 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of thunderstorms
7 miles southwest of Sierra Vista, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea sized hail will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Sierra Vista Southeast, Fort Huachuca, Kino Springs,
Coronado National Memorial, Canelo, Nicksville, Parker Canyon Lake,
Ramsey Canyon Preserve and Lochiel.

LAT...LON 3149 11085 3160 11036 3133 11014 3133 11082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 062DEG 5KT 3149 11039

HARDIN

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 3:48 PM MST, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
348 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ504-507-513-514-162330-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
348 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND WEST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MST...

At 347 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking two strong thunderstorms,
one 5 miles east of Vail and one 10 miles north of Benson, moving
southwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and brief heavy rain will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Mescal, Corona De Tucson and Vail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 11055 3218 11021 3174 11045 3186 11086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 036DEG 16KT 3200 11053

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 2:57 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	33 min
Jul 16, 3:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 16, 3:59 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 16, 4:23 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pinal	97 min
Jul 16, 4:49 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	41 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.