Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
946 AM MST Mon Jul 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Plentiful moisture will remain over the region through
next weekend resulting in multiple rounds of thunderstorms and
showers. Some Thunderstorms will generate strong winds and heavy
rainfall. Due to the increase in clouds and showers, temperatures
will run several degrees below normal through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An active thunderstorm pattern will be in place this
week as a deep easterly flow and moisture have become established
over the region. That said, another round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated this afternoon and
evening as an inverted trough aloft helps focus the active across
the region. Latest short range models along with national guidance
from SPC and WPC point to areas of concern for heavy rainfall and
severe thunderstorm wind over southeast Arizona into western
sections for this afternoon and evening. The current forecast looked
on track for today, so no updates anticipated this morning. Please
refer to the additional sections for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/18Z.
Isolated -SHRA/TS this morning. Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon
into this evening with storms propagating to the west. Additional
area of -SHRA/TS later tonight into Tuesday morning mainly east of
KTUS. Expect SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-10k ft AGL and BKN clouds above 20k
ft AGL. Occasional MVFR ceilings near -TSRA with gusts up to 45 kts
possible. Outside of thunderstorm winds, sfc winds will be out of the
east/southeast at 8-15 kts with some afternoon gusts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will remain high during the next 7 days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day with storms lingering
into the overnight hours. 20 ft surface winds will generally be 15
mph or less from an easterly direction through midweek, and
thereafter follow a more typical diurnal pattern. In the vicinity of
thunderstorms expect strong and variable winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Convection should quickly redevelop today after
11 am with a focus over the White Mountains and along the
north/south PW gradient that is in the western Cochise, eastern Pima
county area this morning.
This feature is expected to focus the initial thunderstorm
development with the storms quickly gathering strength as they head
to the west. At this time, thought is storms developing eastern Pima
county/White Mountains early afternoon and moving west through the
mid-late afternoon. There is potential for a few waves of
thunderstorms the afternoon and evening hours.

The mid-level flow gradually turns more SE later late today into
tonight as a mid-level trough moves west across northern Mexico
southern AZ. This will steer a greater amount of moisture into
eastern portions of the CWA which have been somewhat left out the
last 24-48 hours. The plentiful moisture along with lift in the
vicinity of the trough is expected to result in more and later
nocturnal shower and thunderstorm activity than we have had tonight.
Therefore I raised pops for the overnight period into Tuesday
morning.

Plenty of afternoon convection expected again Tuesday with high PW
values and the mid-level trough in the vicinity, the main difference
will be storm motion which will be more to the NW vs W. Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning has the potential to be similar to
tonight in that convection stands a good chance of continuing
through much of the night across southern AZ. Again, adjusted pops
to account for this idea.

Wednesday, models indicate a weak feature moving north out of Mexico
which if it actually does so at that time of day it will be a good
trigger for storms that afternoon into the evening hours for another
day of enhanced convection.

Thursday into Friday subsidence behind the northward moving feature
coupled with an upper level ridge axis extending over the area
should act to suppress the convection to some extent. With the
amount of moisture remaining in place, would not expect a totally
quiet day, just less activity and what does form focused more east
of Tucson.

Throughout the week, the abundant cloud cover and convection will
generally hold high temperatures below average with lows near or a
bit above average.

Beyond Friday, another wave appears to rotated westward across AZ
through the weekend which will likely ramp up the convection once
again.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
941 AM MST MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 SE AJO               32.24N 112.73W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RV DAMAGED SOUTHEAST OF WHY, AZ.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     16 SE AJO               32.22N 112.69W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGED TO HOME AT GUNSIGHT VILLAGE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
948 AM MST MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ORO VALLEY        32.40N 110.95W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AT 1ST AND ORACLE IN
            ORO VALLEY.

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ORO VALLEY        32.40N 110.95W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN AT 1ST AND ORACLE IN
            ORO VALLEY.

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     16 SE AJO               32.22N 112.69W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGED TO HOME AT GUNSIGHT VILLAGE.

0701 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW ORO VALLEY         32.38N 111.03W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON PROPERTY NEAR OVERTON ROAD AND
            SHANNON ROAD IN ORO VALLEY.

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 SE AJO               32.24N 112.73W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RV DAMAGED SOUTHEAST OF WHY, AZ.

0718 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 WSW ORO VALLEY        32.38N 111.06W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL INCHES OF FAST MOVING WATER FLOWING
            ACROSS THE ROAD AT SNOW LEOPARD DR AND
            CAMINO DE OESTE.

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW ORO VALLEY         32.37N 111.02W
07/08/2018                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS
            ROADWAY NEAR OVERTON ROAD AND LA CHOLLA
            BLVD.

&&

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1251 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

AZZ504>506-092030-
Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Tucson Metro
Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-South Central Pinal
County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
1251 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 1249 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tortolita, or 7 miles northwest of Oro Valley, moving southwest at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marana, Tortolita, Casas Adobes, Avra Valley, Picture Rocks, and
Dove Mountain.

LAT...LON 3258 11112 3251 11092 3223 11107 3234 11136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 027DEG 10KT 3248 11107

HARDIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
117 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

AZZ502-503-515-092100-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-
117 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MST...

At 114 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from south of Kitt Peak to Newfield along the
International Border. This line of storms was moving west
at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this line of
thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Kitt Peak, Topawa, South Komelik, Sasabe, San Miguel, Junction Of
Highway 286 And Arivaca Road, Little Tucson, Choulic, Fresnal Canyon
and Vamori.

LAT...LON 3188 11132 3147 11148 3163 11195 3199 11178
      3202 11148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 097DEG 16KT 3173 11152

Zell