Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Tucson, AZ

120 
WWUS55 KTWC 011010
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2018

AZC009-011-011018-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180901T1015Z/
Graham-Greenlee-
310 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM AND WEST
CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315 AM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened and no longer was 
producing large hail. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to 
expire.

LAT...LON 3301 10975 3319 10974 3322 10921 3295 10922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1008Z 258DEG 25KT 3314 10941 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
955 PM MST Fri Aug 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
especially from Tucson eastward through Labor Day. Daytime
temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal. A gradual
drying trend will then occur later next week, with the bulk of
thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery depicted clear skies to mostly
clear skies south to west of Tucson. Scattered to broken mid-level
clouds were noted elsewhere. KEMX WSR-88D depicted isolated 35-45
dBZ echoes (likely producing sprinkles) had developed during the
past 30 minutes from the Catalina Mountains northwestward into
southeast Pinal County.

Based on satellite and radar trends as well as 01/00Z NAM12, only
isolated showers and a few thunderstorms may occur the rest of
tonight mainly north to east of Tucson. The 01/00Z GFS is
considerably more robust with precip potential versus the NAM12, and
what satellite/radar trends suggest. At any rate, the official
forecast continues with isolated showers/tstms the rest of tonight
mostly from Tucson eastward, and precip-free conditions further west
across western Pima County.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA KTUS vicinity eastward the rest of tonight.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA KTUS vicinity eastward Saturday into Saturday
evening. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may also occur west of KTUS.
Otherwise, clear skies west of KTUS the rest of tonight, and SCT-BKN
clouds 8k-12k ft AGL elsewhere. FEW-BKN clouds 8k-12k ft AGL
Saturday into Saturday evening. Surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts, though brief gusts near TSRA. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms east of Tucson with lesser
coverage and precipitation chances west of Tucson through Labor Day.
A gradual drying trend will evolve to isolated thunderstorms mostly
east of Tucson by the middle of the upcoming week. Expect terrain
driven 20-foot winds at less than 15 mph, except brief strong gusts
near thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /209 PM MST/...Clear skies this morning led to
quick warm up around the region, priming the atmosphere for
convective initiation off the Chiricahua Mountains this early this
afternoon. This is in line with earlier HRRR and U of A WRF
solutions.

Looking at satellite imagery, an upper level trough can be seen
digging into northern California, with an upper level jetlit
swinging around the southern edge moving into western Arizona. This
will be the main driver for convective activity through this
weekend, as the trough flattens and moves eastward into the Great
Basin.

This will enhance the southwesterly flow at the lower levels,
provide moisture and be the focal point for precipitation Saturday
and Sunday. Based on the moisture profiles aloft, the activity
should be confined to the southeastern portion of the state.

By Tuesday, the precipitation chances dwindle and daytime high
temperatures will be in the mid 90s across the lower elevations.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1241 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2018

AZZ506-509>511-010815-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Southeast Pinal County including
Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
including Hannagan Meadow-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including
Mount Graham-
1241 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND
NORTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM MST...

At 1241 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Carlos Reservoir, or 22 miles east of Christmas, moving east at
25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Carlos Reservoir, Calva and Bylas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 10990 3307 11046 3320 11047 3319 11041
      3320 11040 3322 11042 3325 11044 3333 10992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 265DEG 23KT 3317 11037

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2018

AZZ509-510-010915-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
142 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 215
AM MST...

At 142 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles northwest of Safford, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of central Graham
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 11005 3321 11001 3318 10950 3291 10956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 280DEG 21KT 3311 10995