Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Tucson, AZ

287 
WWUS55 KTWC 181027
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
327 AM MST WED JUL 18 2018

AZC019-181045-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-180718T1045Z/
Pima-
327 AM MST WED JUL 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM MST
FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 326 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Ajo, or 33 miles south of Gila Bend, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo.

This includes Route 85 between mile markers 33 and 49.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 11266 3250 11254 3232 11266 3229 11303
      3251 11306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 112DEG 16KT 3247 11279 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

112 
WWUS55 KTWC 181043
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
343 AM MST WED JUL 18 2018

AZC019-181052-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-180718T1045Z/
Pima-
343 AM MST WED JUL 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 345 AM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits while it moved into Maricopa county. Therefore, the warning 
will be allowed to expire. However gusty winds are still possible 
with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3251 11266 3250 11254 3232 11266 3229 11303
      3251 11306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 131DEG 16KT 3250 11282 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
905 PM MST Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Plenty of moisture and instability will remain in
place to support daily showers and thunderstorms through at least
the middle of the week. Partial drying from the east may lead to
reduced thunderstorm coverage by the weekend, along with hotter
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this evening mainly SW of
Tucson where greatest instability resides, but a couple of storms
even occurring over the Rim at this hour. 00z sounding showed
increased easterly mid level flow which is aiding in storm
intensities, increasing storm movement and providing increased
potential for strong wind gusts. HRRR has been verifying well
since late this afternoon and continues to show that thunderstorms
will continue to move across primarily western and central Pima
County into the overnight hours. Cannot completely rule out a
stray shower or storm in the Tucson Metro eastward through at
least midnight. Will keep the 10 percent chances there as in the
going forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/06Z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly west of KTUS and near the
International Border through the night. The Wednesday morning
hours should be dry but at least ISOLD TSRA coverage is expected
again after 18/19z. Cloud bases 8k-12k ft AGL with SCT- BKN
clouds above 20k. Winds remain below 12 kts through the period,
with stronger gusts possible around TSRA. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A shift in the weather pattern will begin to
take place, bringing in drier air and reducing rain chances.
However, isolated storms could still develop, especially over the
higher terrain. Temperatures also gradually warm through the week.
20-ft winds remain below 15 mph, although the Upper Gila River
Valley will experience gustier northwesterly winds at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The upper low moving through Sonora, Mexico
along with the northern extent of the inverted trough passing
through Arizona was showing up nicely in Satellite water vapor
imagery. Showers and a few thunderstorms were developing this
afternoon in the vicinity of this upper low and across far western
Pima county. This general area will be the main focus of showers
and thunderstorm this evening and tonight. Cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms farther north though. Otherwise, high pressure aloft
will become established over the Great Basin region around
Wednesday before shifting over the Desert Southwest this coming
weekend. This adjustment in the position of the upper high will
result in some warming and drying aloft by the end of the week.
This warmer and drying will eventually translate to less
thunderstorm activity and hotter daytime temperatures by the
weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
939 PM MST TUE JUL 17 2018

AZZ502>504-515-180530-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
939 PM MST TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM
MST...

At 938 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms from west of Three Points to north of Sells, moving
west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sells, Kitt Peak, Santa Rosa Ranch, Little Tucson, Pan Tak, San
Pedro, Topawa, Big Fields, Cowlic, Artesa, Comobabi, Nolic and San
Isidro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3212 11140 3195 11140 3170 11198 3198 11221
      3216 11199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 093DEG 13KT 3204 11148

Zell