Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Tucson, AZ

161 
WWUS85 KTWC 220222
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
722 PM MST Mon May 21 2018

AZZ153-221200-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180522T0200Z/
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0019.180522T1900Z-180523T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
722 PM MST Mon May 21 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153... 
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST 
TUESDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
153...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 153.

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Tuesday.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 
  mph with gusts around 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values will range from 9 
  to 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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836 
WWUS85 KTWC 220928
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
228 AM MST Tue May 22 2018


AZZ153-230200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0019.180522T1900Z-180523T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
228 AM MST Tue May 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY, AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 153.

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot winds from the southwest at 15 to 
  25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values will range from 9 
  to 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

323 
WWUS85 KTWC 230147
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
647 PM MST Tue May 22 2018

AZZ153-230300-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180523T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
647 PM MST Tue May 22 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A 
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153...

Winds will continue to diminish this evening with moderate RH
recoveries overnight.

$$


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Meyer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
224 PM MST Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions are expected again Tuesday with
seasonable temperatures thanks to a storm system lingering over
Nevada. Then lighter winds and warming temperatures will be in place
the remainder of the work week as the storm dissipates and moves
northeast. Another dry and breezy system now looks to affect the
state this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The afternoon breeze has kicked in across southern
Arizona this afternoon with temperatures climbing to slightly warmer
than average levels. Up to this point, moisture trends have also
played out as expected with the low level moisture that did move west
across the border having already mixed out resulting in dewpoints
currently in the teens there. Therefore the thunderstorms (some
impressive) have remained over New Mexico and are not expected to
be a threat to our forecast area.

Tuesday, the storm responsible for today's breeze will still be in
place over Nevada resulting in another breezy day rather similar to
today. However, temperatures will be 3-5 degrees cooler during the
afternoon.

Then beyond that, well, what a difference a day makes in the world of
models. Over the last several days we have been looking at a fairly
significant ridge building over the area late in the week with a
storm passing by well to the NW leaving our area baking in 100+
degree heat. Over the last 24 hours models have transitioned in
unison to driving that low further south in a path very similar to
the current system. It's not just the operational runs, but also
every ensemble member making it very hard to ignore, especially since
this has been the ongoing pattern of late. This required a good
amount of adjustment to the forecast temperatures downward and winds
upward, not that I am too sad to see the over 100 degree temperatures
disappearing. While the overall trend is cooler in the model world
there remains a significant amount of spread in the solutions
therefore I only adjusted downward a few degrees. If the operational
run of the GFS rings true it will even cooler yet. We will see as
this slowly plays out.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z
A few clouds above 20k ft AGL will pass by across northern areas this
evening, otherwise expect clear skies. Gusty S-SW surface winds of
10-20 kts with gusts to 35 mph winds will ease after 22/03Z this
evening then return Tuesday during the late morning hours through the
early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds and very low humidity levels will
continue into the evening with elevated fire weather conditions.
Isolated critical conditions have briefly occurred at times across
southern AZ, however they have been the exception rather than the
rule. The White Mountains has a stronger wind field and as a result
more widespread critical conditions from the Alpine District
northward. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for that.

Tuesday we will have very similar wind and RH conditions and after
coordinating with the Flagstaff office, we have issued a Red Flag
Warning for Tuesday afternoon over the same area, the Alpine District
with Flagstaff issuing one from there north.

Quieter days are expected Wednesday into Friday with lighter winds
and warmer than average temperatures. A change from previous thinking
relates to the weekend where instead of a an upper level ridge with
light winds and very hot temperatures, its beginning to look like we
will be affected by another system similar to what we have at that
moment. That would mean gusty winds and only a little bit warmer than
average, again like today and Tuesday with elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ153.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ153.

&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Cerniglia/Rasmussen
FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia/Rasmussen

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