Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Tucson, AZ

007 
WWUS85 KTWC 171033
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
333 AM MST Thu May 17 2018

AZZ151-152-180200-
/O.EXA.KTWC.FW.W.0017.180517T1800Z-180518T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
333 AM MST Thu May 17 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR  
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND A HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 151 AND 152...

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST
this evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Above 5000 feet in the Catalina, Rincon, Santa
  Rita and Huachuca Mountains of Fire Weather zone 151 and above
  5000 feet in the Chiricahua, Mule, Dragoon, Pinaleno and Galiuro
  mountains of Fire weather zone 152.

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MST
  today.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot winds out of the southwest at 15 to
  25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are expected Thursday. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values will range from 5 to
  10 percent this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A combination 
of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry vegetation will 
create the potential for rapid and erratic fire growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

AZZ153-180200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0017.180517T1800Z-180518T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
333 AM MST Thu May 17 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR 
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND A HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153...

* AFFECTED AREA...Northern half of Fire weather zone 153.

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MST
  today.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot winds out of the southwest at 15 to 25
  mph with gusts to 35 mph . 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values will range from 5 to
  10 percent this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A combination 
of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry vegetation will 
create the potential for rapid and erratic fire growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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095 
WWUS85 KTWC 172048
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 PM MST Thu May 17 2018

AZZ151>153-180200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180518T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
148 PM MST Thu May 17 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND A HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151,
152, AND 153...

* AFFECTED AREA...Above 5000 feet in the Catalina, Rincon, Santa
  Rita and Huachuca Mountains of Fire Weather zone 151 and above
  5000 feet in the Chiricahua, Mule, Dragoon, Pinaleno and Galiuro
  mountains of Fire weather zone 152. 

* TIMING...Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7 PM MST today.

* WINDS...Sustained 20-foot winds out of the southwest at 15 to 25
  mph with gusts to 40 mph . 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum humidity values will range from 5 
  to 10 percent this afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


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971 
WWUS85 KTWC 180203
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
703 PM MST Thu May 17 2018

AZZ151>153-180315-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180518T0200Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Eastern Pima County-Southeastern Pinal County-
Santa Cruz County-Western Cochise County-
Coronado NF-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Southern Greenlee County-Central and Eastern Cochise County-
Southern Graham County-Southern San Carlos Apache Nation-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-SDC-
703 PM MST Thu May 17 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 
AND 153...

Gusty southwest to winds were gradually decreasing in speed early
this evening and will continue to diminish the rest of tonight.
Although relative humidity remains very low, winds have decreased
below warning criteria. Thus, the Red Flag Warning has been
allowed to expire.

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1006 AM MST Wed May 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather, with predominantly clear skies and warm to
average temperatures throughout the forecast. Breezes strengthen on
Thursday into Friday and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few wisps of cirrus to our south, otherwise
pretty dry from the surface to the exosphere. Precipitable water
under 1/3 of an inch and surface dew points in the teens and 20s.

Breezy conditions at times and a few degrees of cooling as systems
brush by north of us, otherwise fairly typical weather for mid
May. Please see the previous discussion below for additional
details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/18Z
Clear skies. SFC winds light and terrain driven except becoming
W-NW 5-12 kts 16/19Z thru 17/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue across
southern Arizona into the foreseeable future. Generally light winds
are expected today with typical afternoon gustiness. A weather
system passing by to the north will pick up the winds Thursday and
Friday afternoons resulting in elevated fire weather conditions
across much of the area Thursday and mainly zone 152 Friday. Another
dry and breezy system is expected to affect the area early to the
middle part of next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Hard to find a hint of cloud cover anywhere
near the state early this morning under dry southwesterly 500mb
flow. With the ridge axis stretching across the eastern portion of
the Rockies, high temperatures continue to warm several degrees
above normal. Some of the warmest valley locations could even make
a push toward triple digits as guidance has depicted a slight
cool bias the past few days.

Temperatures begin to trend down a couple degrees on Thursday as the
pattern progresses east and an upper low moves into Nevada,
producing height and thickness falls. The more significant change
will be the tightening gradient and winds become quite breezy during
the afternoon, especially across Cochise County. As the low slowly
ejects toward the northeast on Friday, winds remain strong east of
Tucson, becoming light area-wide over the weekend. Temperatures also
continue to drop allowing for near seasonal normals Friday and
Saturday.

A second low slides down the Pacific coastline early next week,
which could allow for an increase in moisture along the New
Mexico/Arizona border. Models diverge slightly, with the ECMWF
pushing the low farther south and hinting at the best chances for
showers reaching the higher terrain out east. However, this remains
an outlier for the time being and precipitation has been left out of
the forecast for now. Higher confidence exists for breezy conditions
returning Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Meyer/Howlett

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