Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

637 
WGUS65 KTWC 160115
FFATWC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
615 PM MST Sun Jul 15 2018

AZZ505-506-509>511-160215-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180716T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Upper Gila River Valley-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-
615 PM MST Sun Jul 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of Southeast Arizona has been
cancelled as the threat of heavy rain has greatly diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
259 AM MST Sun Jul 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Plenty of moisture and instability will remain in
place to support daily showers and thunderstorms into next week.
Some storms will generate strong winds and heavy rain. With the
storms, temperatures will generally remain below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A decaying circulation from an MCS is drifting
southward into the Tucson Metro area this morning. With the soupy
atmosphere and remnant largely untapped elevated convective
potential, it will start the day out with showers accompanied by
embedded isolated thunderstorms. Slow movement with an emphasis on
heavy rainfall. That will generally bypass the normal diurnal
cycle of storms with a worked-over atmosphere in many locations
limiting afternoon re-development. We'll see if any outflows or
other lower to mid level features bring evening and overnight
activity once again.

Beyond that, the start of the work week will be governed by a
strengthening ridge with a rough consolidation north of our area
and a resulting easterly flow. Initially we will continue to have
plenty of moisture for storms, and with a little better storm
level flow. Add in an inverted trough across Chihuahua Monday and
Sonora Tuesday, and we should keep the monsoon going strong the
first half of the week.

The second half of the week, operational and ensemble means
strengthen the ridge through the desert southwest with a new
center consolidating immediately east of our area. We'll keep
enough moisture around for storms, but we may start to warm a
little in mid levels. Combined with a weaker flow, that might slow
us down a little with a down day or two later this week. With
fewer storms and stronger high pressure, temperatures will jump
back up to several degrees above average by next weekend. Any
breaks will be brief though. It largely depends on the location of
the high.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA are currently progressing NW to SE
across the area this morning. With abundant cloud cover, SHRA may
struggle to develop embedded TSRA, but isolated storms can't be
totally ruled out. Cloud bases range 5k-10k ft AGL with BKN-OVC
clouds above 20k ft AGL. Surface winds remain below 12 kts through
the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep moisture continues to reside over the region
allowing for the development of showers and thunderstorms. The
pattern begins to gradually shift by the middle of next week
reducing the probability of precipitation, but isolated storms could
still develop, especially over the higher terrain. Temperatures also
look to warm several degrees above normal. 20-ft winds remain below
15 mph, although the Upper Gila River Valley will experience gustier
northwesterly winds at times.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer/Howlett

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