Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 PM MST Thu Jul 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture, instability and light flow will add
up to slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon, with some producing
heavy rain. Friday into next week, moisture will remain high enough
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly from the Tucson area
east during the afternoon and evening hours. Overall, temperatures
will remain below normal into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms carrying the
potential for heavy rain and flash flooding were this afternoon,
with the majority of activity occuring east of Tucson. Storm motions
are slow as expected, but generally toward the E or NE at 5 to 10
mph. The exception here was for storms developing across the White
Mtns, which were generally rolling toward the S or SE. Some training
has been observed, with QPE amounts under the stronger cores
registering between 0.50 and 1" in an hour and a few locally higher
amounts measured by gauges on the ground. A few stronger
thunderstorms have been able to organize, but nothing of the severe
variety. With some drier air trying to infiltrate the area in the
mid levels from the SW, cu fields across the western halves of Pima
and Pinal Counties have been pretty tame, and confidence in
convective development for those areas this afternoon is low.

As mentioned above, SW flow aloft was providing some mid-level
drying. This is evident on satellite PWAT estimates ranging from
1.2" across Graham and Greenlee Counties, to 1.5" near KTUS, which
are down about 1/3 of an inch from 12Z this morning. This decrease
in moisture from near-record levels won't be able to completely
eliminate the thunderstorm threat on Friday, but it should limit
development just slightly. Additionally, we'll closely watch a
developing MCS across NE Sonora, MX. This feature has been picked up
by both the 18Z NAM/GFS which push moisture and precip into Cochise
County through the overnight hours. Should this come to fruition,
remnant debris clouds could help shape much of Friday's weather.
Regardless, still think best chance for rain Friday will occur near
the Int'l and NM borders and across the sky islands.

Mid-level SW flow will persist into Saturday before turning toward
the NW on Sunday and back to the east early next week as high
pressure meanders around to our west and northwest. This will result
in varying degrees of shower and thunderstorm activity throughout
the next week and no sign of a pattern change resulting in a
reprieve. Additionally, we'll see surface dewpoints remaining in the
upper 50s to upper 60s which should help to keep daytime highs, in
conjunction with cloud cover, around 3 to 5 degrees below normal. As
is typical this time of year, each day's forecast is highly
dependent on the previous 12 to 24 hours, so some changes to the
forecast over the next few days are likely to occur.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z.
SCT +TSRA/+SHRA this afternoon and early this evening with cloud
bases generally 5-10k ft AGL. Surface winds mainly SWLY-NWLY this
afternoon at 8-12 kts. A few wind gusts up to 40 kts may occur near
TS with brief MVFR cigs/vsbys due to +RA. Rain chances decrease
slightly overnight, but SCT TSRA/SHRA are possible again Friday
afternoon mainly S and E of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Favorable conditions remain in place through
the forecast period for daily shower and thunderstorm development,
primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours. 20-ft winds
will generally remain less than 15 mph aside from gusty outflows
around thunderstorm activity.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Carpenter

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1242 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

AZZ504-507-513-122015-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Tucson Metro Area including
Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
1242 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MST...

At 1241 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of East Sahuarita, or 12 miles east of Green Valley,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Corona De Tucson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 11080 3188 11092 3199 11072 3189 11060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 229DEG 7KT 3187 11080

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
101 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

AZZ509-510-122030-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
101 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND WEST
CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 100 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northwest of Morenci, or 37 miles north of Safford, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of north central
Graham and west central Greenlee Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 10960 3343 10951 3339 10935 3323 10941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 292DEG 9KT 3334 10949

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

AZZ507-508-513-122045-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
121 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM MST...

At 121 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Bisbee, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of south central
Cochise County.

LAT...LON 3149 10992 3162 11006 3179 10990 3164 10972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 224DEG 8KT 3161 10994

HARDIN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
438 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

AZZ504-130000-
Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
438 PM MST THU JUL 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MST...

At 436 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm west
of the Tucson International Airport, moving slowly to the east.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rain will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Drexel-Alvernon, Summit, Drexel Heights, San Xavier Mission
and Tucson International Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 11101 3217 11101 3217 11090 3206 11091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 278DEG 3KT 3211 11097