Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
341 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front managed to make it through most of Tulsa County
before slowing its southeast progress. The impressive temperature
gradient today extends from west to east, with temperatures in
southwest and central Oklahoma about 20 to 25 degrees cooler than
areas in east central Oklahoma. Temperatures across this area and
southeast Oklahoma warmed into the mid to upper 80s. Storms
continue to fire along and north of the boundary, with additional
storms across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
Atmosphere is moderately unstable ahead of the front, but the best
storm coverage will likely be near the boundary, where storms will
have a tendency to back build to the southwest.

The front will lift back north of the area on Sunday, leaving the
muggy air in place for another couple of days. Rain chances will
be highest near the retreating boundary across northeast into
central Oklahoma on Sunday, with a lull in the activity by Sunday
night into Monday. Much of the area may remain dry on Monday, with
the highest rain chances west of Highway 75. Upper level trough
in the west is slow moving, and will be located near the Four
Corners region by Monday night.

As large scale height falls spread out over the central and high
Plains on Tuesday, the front will again begin a southward push
toward Oklahoma. This will be a favorable set up for widespread
showers and storms, some of which could be strong or severe on
Tuesday. The heaviest rain will likely fall from Tuesday afternoon
or evening into Wednesday morning. At this point, the trough looks
progressive enough that any flooding impacts may be minimal.
Finally by Wednesday into Thursday, we may see overnight lows in
the 40s and 50s rather than 60s and 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  79  71  82 /  70  70  60  20
FSM   71  84  69  85 /  20  50  20  10
MLC   70  81  71  83 /  60  50  30  20
BVO   60  78  67  82 /  80  80  70  30
FYV   68  80  67  81 /  40  50  20  10
BYV   67  80  67  83 /  30  50  10  10
MKO   68  80  69  83 /  60  60  30  10
MIO   65  79  69  84 /  60  70  30  20
F10   68  80  70  82 /  70  60  40  20
HHW   71  84  69  85 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
this afternoon ahead of a cold front that was pushing into eastern
Oklahoma. The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
will exist as convection redevelops and trains over the same area
near the front. A few strong storms will be possible near the front
this afternoon and evening. The threat of widespread severe weather
is low but a few storms could produce small hail and damaging wind
gusts.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through Tuesday...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain
Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An extended period of showers and thunderstorms is expected across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a storm system deepens
across the western U.S. then lifts northeast by midweek. At the
same time a cold front will linger across the region with an
abundance of low level moisture pooling along the boundary. Heavy
rainfall and a flooding potential will exist, primarily across
northeast Oklahoma north of Interstate 44. Organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected however isolated thunderstorms with
damaging winds and small hail will be possible mainly during the
afternoon and evening Sunday and again Tuesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

OKZ057-058-062045-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
258 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bluejacket,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Commerce...
Welch...                          Bluejacket...
Treece...                         Picher...
Cardin...                         Pyramid Corners...

LAT...LON 3672 9501 3680 9521 3700 9513 3700 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 205DEG 22KT 3683 9508

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

OKZ060-061-062130-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS AND EAST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Owasso, moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Claremore...
Owasso...                         Catoosa...
Verdigris...                      Tiawah...
Taiwah...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 239 and 250.

LAT...LON 3619 9584 3628 9586 3640 9559 3620 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 255DEG 12KT 3625 9579

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
413 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

OKZ066-067-070-062200-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-
413 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAGONER...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Stonebluff, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Coweta...                         Haskell...
Stonebluff...                     Redbird...

LAT...LON 3591 9546 3577 9582 3584 9588 3586 9586
      3586 9582 3589 9582 3590 9580 3590 9576
      3593 9576 3607 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 234DEG 22KT 3584 9582