Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
253 PM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Area of convection remains ongoing across parts of northeast
Oklahoma with another area exiting northwest Arkansas. Outflow
boundary generated from the aforementioned convection showing up
nicely on KINX, however current thinking is chances for additional
storm development along this boundary will be quite limited as
upper level high pressure continues to build into the area from
the south. That said, convective chances look to be confined to
the same areas for the remainder of the afternoon. Expect
diminishing coverage around 00Z across far northwest Arkansas, so
at this time will not include pops for the first period, but
instead use a pre first period to keep a mention going through
the afternoon. Upper level high pressure will build into the area
for Friday and Saturday, likely resulting in the hottest days for
this forecast cycle. Much of the area will see afternoon heat
index values between 100-105 Friday, with the potential for a few
degrees less for Saturday. The upper high begins to shift east
late in the weekend, leaving the area on the periphery of slightly
better flow. Several disturbances moving around the periphery of
the high will increase chances for scattered thunderstorms, mainly
during the afternoon beginning Sunday and continuing into Labor
Day. The pattern into the middle of the week doesn't look to
change much, so will maintain low pops across the entire area with
warm and humid conditions to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  95  76  94 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   73  93  76  92 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   74  95  76  94 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  95  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   69  91  70  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   70  91  71  90 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   73  94  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   73  94  75  93 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  95  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   73  96  75  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
515 PM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken as
it moves southeast across northwest Arkansas and east central
Oklahoma early this evening. A limited severe weather risk will
continue until near sunset with the storms on the western end of
the line in east central Oklahoma. Hail to quarter size and 60
mile an wind gusts will be the main threat.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will build across the region on Friday and
Saturday, with a return to hot and humid conditions. By Sunday,
there will be at least some chance for widely scattered showers
and storms in the afternoon, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

OKZ068>070-302230-
Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-
504 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR...CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tahlequah,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

Dime to penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Stilwell...
Hulbert...                        Eldon...
Adair State Park...               Proctor...
Christie...                       Greenleaf State Park...
Pumpkin Center...                 Maryetta...
Cookson...                        Cherokee Landing State Park...
Scraper...                        Baron...
Lost City...

LAT...LON 3578 9453 3564 9502 3564 9512 3561 9513
      3559 9518 3602 9523 3604 9522 3615 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 335DEG 31KT 3594 9494

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

OKZ068>070-072-074-302300-
Haskell OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
528 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HASKELL...
SEQUOYAH...ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EAST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Eldon, moving south at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Vian...                           Gore...
Webbers Falls...                  Marble City...
Brushy...                         Adair State Park...
Maryetta...                       Cookson...
Brushy Lake State Park...         Cherokee Landing State Park...
Bunch...                          Lake Tenkiller State Park...
Baron...                          Short...
Box...                            Mc Key...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 285 and
311.

LAT...LON 3538 9519 3570 9513 3589 9491 3596 9453
      3546 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 338DEG 32KT 3584 9481