Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low, clearly seen in the water vapor imagery this afternoon
moving into far southwest MO, will continue drifting ESE. Could
see a few isolated thunderstorms develop across far northeast
Oklahoma or northwest Arkansas. Steep low level lapse rates could
allow for brief downburst potential but activity should quickly
dissipate early this evening with the loss of surface heating.

Next upper trough, currently over ND/SD will dive south through
the central plains tonight into Friday.  A weak frontal boundary
will approach from the north Friday afternoon/evening with
isolated showers/thunderstorms again possible. Upper trough still
forecast to stall as upper low over the Texas panhandle on Saturday.
NAM hinting at the potential for smaller scale MCV development
ahead of upper low from thunderstorm complex over north Texas.
This feature may lift north into the area Saturday afternoon,
providing scattered thunderstorm development, which would be
aided by peak heating.

Best precipitation chances still appear to be Sunday through
the middle part of next week as upper low becomes more elongated
and begins a slow progression eastward. PWAT values will continue
to increase to around 2 inches by Wednesday with locally heavy
rainfall possible in the stronger thunderstorm bands. High
temperatures should remain several degrees below normal through
the early to middle part of next week with the extensive cloud
cover/precip expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  95  70  93 /  10  20  20  30
FSM   71  95  71  92 /  10  20  20  30
MLC   70  93  70  90 /   0  10  20  30
BVO   67  94  64  92 /  20  20  20  30
FYV   65  91  66  91 /  20  20  20  30
BYV   68  93  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
MKO   69  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
MIO   68  93  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
F10   70  93  70  91 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   71  94  72  91 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 330 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A limited or isolated damaging wind threat exists with thunderstorms
this afternoon.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas may drift down into far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon. Isolated storm development is
also possible in this region. The strongest storms could produce
damaging microbursts.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the weekend
and early next week. Thunderstorm chances will exist most every
day, however Friday and Saturday will offer the lowest chances
with increasing chances for the first part of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
449 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

OKZ058-092215-
Ottawa OK-
449 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Treece, moving
south at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Baxter Springs...
Commerce...                       Quapaw...
Treece...                         Picher...
Ottawa...                         Cardin...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 308 and 317.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3682 9473 3688 9500 3694 9500 3695 9499
      3696 9501 3700 9498 3700 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 015DEG 4KT 3699 9485

Lacy