Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Stronger convection starting to shift east of the region this
afternoon in association with earlier MCS/MCV. A few storms
continue across far northeast Oklahoma, on periphery, where
stronger surface heating has occurred. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will remain possible tonight into Thursday, especially across far
southeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas as northwest flow
continues. Frontal boundary will stall near the Red river on
Friday, keeping overall precipitation chances low through
Saturday.

Models remain in fairly good agreement with developing cutoff
upper low over the Texas panhandle Sunday into the early part of
next week. Latest trends keep system a little more compact and
therefore keep some of the heavier rain over western/central
Oklahoma. Still decent precip chances as upper low becomes
elongated and begins to lift northeast around mid week with better
thunderstorm coverage. High temperatures should remain several
degrees below normal into next week with the extensive cloud cover
expected, including storm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  92  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
FSM   72  89  71  92 /  60  50  20  20
MLC   71  87  69  91 /  50  40  20  20
BVO   67  91  68  93 /  20  10  10  20
FYV   69  87  68  90 /  50  40  10  20
BYV   68  89  67  92 /  40  40  10  20
MKO   71  89  70  92 /  50  20  10  20
MIO   68  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  20
F10   69  90  68  91 /  50  20  10  20
HHW   72  88  71  92 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms remain ongoing across parts of northwest
Arkansas late this afternoon. Brief periods of gusty winds along
with very heavy rainfall will likely accompany the strongest
storms. These storms are expected to exit the area this evening,
however chances for additional showers and storms will continue
across the entire area overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as a slow
moving low pressure center develops across the southern High
Plains. The overall risk of severe weather will remain low,
however locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
406 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

ARZ001-002-082145-
Carroll AR-Benton AR-
406 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gateway, moving
east at 15 mph.

Pea to Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eureka Springs...                 Garfield...
Gateway...                        Beaver...
Grandview...                      Pleasant Ridge...
Hill Top...                       Walnut Hill...
Oak Hill...                       Busch...

LAT...LON 3639 9400 3650 9400 3650 9362 3635 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 268DEG 12KT 3649 9391

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
441 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

ARZ002-082215-
Carroll AR-
441 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Urbanette, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Urbanette...                      Blue Eye...
Pleasant Ridge...

LAT...LON 3639 9346 3647 9366 3650 9365 3650 9337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 204DEG 11KT 3650 9353

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

ARZ002-082230-
Carroll AR-
504 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Urbanette,
moving east at 25 mph.

Pea to Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Green Forest...
Urbanette...                      Grandview...
Rule...                           Blue Eye...
Coin...                           Pleasant Ridge...
Cabanal...                        Denver...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 9357 3649 9366 3650 9362 3650 9330
      3648 9329 3629 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 248DEG 20KT 3639 9352

Lacy