Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
927 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Earlier thunderstorms have left an outflow boundary stretched from
northern Franklin County northwestward into northern Washington
County Oklahoma. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
continuing to bubble along and north of the boundary, especially
in parts of southern Kansas, which has been largely previously
undisturbed by evening convection. Additional isolated to
scattered development could occur mainly across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and eventually, far northwest Arkansas through the night
within a fairly pronounced instability axis. The main change to
the going POP forecast was to spread slight chances farther south
and also increase them slightly near the Kansas and Missouri
borders.

With regards to the heat tomorrow, Choctaw and Pushmataha counties
have been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning tomorrow, largely
due to their high temperatures likely to exceed the high
temperature threshold /at least 105/ for a warning. Oklahoma
Mesonet stations in both counties met that criterion, in addition
to the heat index criterion /at least 110/, today, and there is no
reason that they should not again tomorrow. It is possible that
additional counties may need to be added on the mid shift or
perhaps during the day tomorrow, depending on how the overnight
convection evolves. Far southeast Oklahoma seemed like a slam
dunk, and hence, the upgrade this evening.

Updated products already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites. Have included a VCTS for a few hours this
evening at KROG for storms currently moving across southwest
Missouri.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Oppressive heat index values currently observed across much of
eastern OK through west central AR and conditions will only slowly
improve through the late evening hours. An additional focus for
the evening into overnight hours will be the evolution of
convection ongoing across central KS into western MO. Strong
instability remains downstream of this convection along with
seasonably strong deep layer shear on periphery of upper low
passing through the upper Midwest. This environment will support
continued S-SE development of the convection however mid level
temps also warm notably with southward extend as sampled by 18z
LMN sounding. While CAM solutions vary in details, the idea of
convection waning as it spreads into the area is a common theme
and supported by observational data. Thus will confine evening
precip chances to far NE OK through far NW AR and, should any
sustained storms make it this far south, then gusty outflow winds
will be a concern.

Temps tomorrow continue to look the hottest in some time. The
advancing cold front will enter northern portions of the area
during the afternoon and may actually serve to initially worsen
heat conditions with a period of pre-frontal heating aligned with
pooling low level moisture. There is some potential for overnight
convective debris to complicate the temperature forecast however
those sensitive to specific heat headlines should prepare for
portions of E OK / NW AR to be upgraded to heat warnings for
tomorrow. Also, late afternoon and evening storms look likely
along the frontal zone however the higher chances may focus east
of the forecast area as mid level temps remain very warm.

The front slowly pushes southward focusing the highest heat across
far SE OK on Saturday with all areas experiencing slightly cooler
and drier conditions by Sunday. The continuation of temps at or
possibly below normal may well persist through much of next week.
Longer term outlooks issued by Climate Prediction Center also
indicate higher chances for below normal temps for the extended
forecast periods.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ054>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-
     053.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
904 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE FRIDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop tonight across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas...and
adjacent portions of Kansas and Missouri. If these storms develop,
they would have a limited potential for damaging winds.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Intense heat and humidity will continue into Friday, with heat
index values above 110 degrees possible for some areas. A weak
cold front will push through the area by Saturday, bringing
somewhat cooler conditions, although heat index values will likely
still exceed 105 in some places this weekend into early next
week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
An increase in heat related responses is likely through Friday.
Local heat response plans may experience an uptick in activation
levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
728 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EUREKA SPRINGS          36.40N 93.74W
07/19/2018                   CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE. PHOTO RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA ACCOUNT.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 WNW GATEWAY           36.50N 93.95W
07/19/2018  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MPING REPORT.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W EUREKA SPRINGS      36.40N 93.76W
07/19/2018                   CARROLL            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DROPPED A 40 FOOT TALL MAPLE TREE AND TOOK OUT POWER.
            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

KAH

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