Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
401 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid weather is likely to continue for at least the next
week. An upper ridge over the southwest U.S. will expand eastward
later in the week, putting an end to the scattered showers and
thunderstorms we have seen the past few days, and will continue to
see through Wednesday. A weak frontal boundary may move south into
the area late this week or over the weekend, but this remains
highly uncertain. Regardless, the upper air pattern supports hot
temperatures...just slightly less hot if a front does indeed move
through. A heat advisory will be issued again today for all but
far northwest Arkansas. Temperatures today will generally be a bit
warmer than they were Sunday, with a few spots likely to touch the
century mark this afternoon.

Generally went a bit warmer than most guidance for high
temperatures the next couple days, in line with what has occurred
recently.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  75  97  75 /  30  40  40  40
FSM   99  76  98  76 /  40  40  40  40
MLC   99  74  98  74 /  30  20  30  20
BVO   97  72  96  72 /  30  40  40  40
FYV   93  71  92  71 /  40  40  40  40
BYV   95  71  94  71 /  40  40  40  40
MKO   98  74  97  74 /  30  40  40  40
MIO   96  72  95  72 /  30  40  30  40
F10   98  75  97  75 /  30  30  30  30
HHW  100  75  99  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
851 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
851 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms continue across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas this evening, and additional, more
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after midnight
tonight. Coverage is likely to be highest across portions of
northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The pattern will remain unsettled into mid week, with thunderstorm
chances continuing through Wednesday. There will be a continued
threat for strong downburst winds with the strongest afternoon
storms.

Hot and humid conditions will continue this week, likely increasing
late in the week as the upper level ridge builds into the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
449 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

OKZ068-069-161015-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
449 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

At 449 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Tahlequah, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Bunch...
Eldon...                          Cherokee Landing State Park...

LAT...LON 3575 9509 3593 9506 3594 9468 3567 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 276DEG 16KT 3584 9499