Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 6, 2018Craig County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 6, 2018, 1:49 PM CDT for Craig County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2018, 1:49 PM CDT (18:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2018, 2:15 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Craig County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1530 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1278 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 6, 12:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 12:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 18Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered afternoon convection can't be ruled out at any TAF site
and thus VCTS mention at all sites. Guidance suggested a bit
higher chance at KFSM, thus a TEMPO group was maintained at that
location. Convection should taper off btwn 00Z and 02Z. Based on
persistence and the latest model data, some potential for IFR fog
exists in the valley at KFYV toward sunrise. Outside of the fog
and storms, VFR conditions will prevail. Drier air entering the
region behind a cool front will give us a break from the storms on
Saturday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1053 AM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The latest short term data continues to suggest we should see
scattered afternoon convection again today, initially starting in
the favored terrain areas and moving/propagating westward in the
easterly flow aloft. Similar to yesterday, the taller and stronger
cores could produce strong to severe wind gusts. The current
forecast has this handled reasonably well so no changes are
planned at this time. On the temperature side of things, heat
indices are already at or near 100 degrees in many locations, will
need to closely monitor the trends for the possibility of a heat
advisory for some areas this afternoon.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect some
of the terminals this afternoon. MVFR conditions are possible near
areas of storms, with reduced visibilities in heavy downpours.
Gusty winds will also be likely as storms collapse. Storms may
develop first across northwest Arkansas, and then build into
northeast Oklahoma along a slowly sagging cold front. VFR
conditions are expected by this evening as storms diminish.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 AM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Convection still lingering across southeastern portions of the
forecast area, although coverage has diminished considerably over
the past few hours. Will carry low PoPs into the morning hours
although better chances of additional showers/thunderstorms arrive
by the afternoon as a weak backdoor cold front drops into the
area. HRRR and other CAMs models suggest development may start
across northeast OK into northeast AR, with the activity
developing southwest as the surface boundary sags through.
Overall severe weather threat will remain low, but some gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

The weak cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend, along with drier low-level air (and lower humidity)
for the weekend.

The upper high will build back across the central Plains for next
week, with a series of weak waves expected to track east along the
southern periphery of the ridge. This will bring periodic chances
of showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the southern half of the
forecast area for much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  71  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
FSM   95  73  92  68 /  40  20  10   0
MLC   93  72  90  67 /  40  20  10   0
BVO   95  67  91  59 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   91  63  86  58 /  30  10  10   0
BYV   90  65  87  61 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   95  71  90  66 /  40  20  10   0
MIO   93  67  89  61 /  20  10   0   0
F10   94  72  90  67 /  40  20  10   0
HHW   95  73  93  71 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....30

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 1:00 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited to Elevated in spots.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage thru the
afternoon across the region, ahead of a weak cold front. The
stronger storms are likely to produce strong gusty winds. Isolated
reports of damaging winds are possible as well with the strongest
cells. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours
will also accompany the storms.

Outside of the storm activity, much of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas will again see heat index values climb into the 100
to 105 degree range. Take the proper heat precautions if you must be
outdoors during the middle of the day.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Drier and slightly cooler conditions will follow the front over
the weekend. Thunderstorm chances return early next week as a more
humid airmass spreads back across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:12 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

OKZ056-061-061845-
Rogers OK-Nowata OK-
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROGERS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 112 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest of
New Alluwe, moving south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Chelsea...
Talala...                         New Alluwe...
Watova...

LAT...LON 3669 9543 3660 9543 3660 9542 3647 9544
      3655 9580 3676 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 017DEG 10KT 3664 9554

Lacy

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:14 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
114 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ001-061845-
Benton AR-
114 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

At 114 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pea Ridge,
moving southwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Lowell...
Pea Ridge...                      Garfield...
Hiwasse...                        Miller...
Centerton...                      Avoca...
Gateway...                        Hill Top...
Walnut Hill...                    Monte Ne...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 81 and 93.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3648 9393 3624 9407 3641 9439 3650 9425
      3650 9397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 042DEG 11KT 3647 9411

Lacy

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:15 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ001-OKZ063-061845-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 115 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over South West
City, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Maysville...
Dodge...                          Cayuga...

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9444 3629 9461 3647 9486
      3662 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 042DEG 11KT 3652 9458

Lacy

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:25 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

OKZ057-062-061900-
Craig OK-Mayes OK-
125 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
Ketchum, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Langley...
Ketchum...                        Spavinaw...
Disney...                         Big Cabin...
Pensacola...                      Spavinaw State Park...
Cherokee State Park...            Strang...
Disney Little Blue State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 270 and 285.

LAT...LON 3658 9501 3647 9500 3634 9508 3651 9535
      3651 9533 3652 9533 3665 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 037DEG 6KT 3655 9510

Lacy

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:35 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
135 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-069-061900-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-Delaware OK-
135 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...WEST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 135 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over West Siloam
Springs, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Siloam Springs...                 Westville...
West Siloam Springs...            Watts...
Cincinnati...                     Lake Francis...
Ballard...                        Natural Falls State Park...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3619 9442 3594 9453 3606 9480 3609 9480
      3627 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 029DEG 9KT 3616 9458

Lacy

Special weather statement, Jul 6, 1:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
149 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

OKZ057-061-062-061915-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
149 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS AND NORTH CENTRAL MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
White Oak, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chelsea...                        Adair...
Big Cabin...                      White Oak...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 268 and 281.

LAT...LON 3668 9532 3659 9513 3640 9521 3653 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 031DEG 9KT 3658 9528

Lacy

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 7:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	26 min
Jul 5, 7:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee	27 min
Jul 5, 8:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	31 min
Jul 5, 9:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee	31 min
Jul 5, 11:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	24 min
Jul 5, 11:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	41 min
Jul 6, 1:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer, Pittsburg	51 min
Jul 6, 12:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	34 min
Jul 6, 12:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	27 min
Jul 6, 1:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	33 min
Jul 6, 1:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	30 min
Jul 6, 1:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	35 min
Jul 6, 1:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Washington	41 min
Jul 6, 1:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	25 min
Jul 6, 1:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	24 min
Jul 6, 1:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	37 min
Jul 6, 1:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	34 min
Jul 6, 2:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	50 min
Jul 6, 2:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Washington	60 min
Jul 6, 2:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	25 min
Jul 6, 2:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes, Wagoner	37 min
Jul 6, 2:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	27 min
Jul 6, 2:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	34 min
Jul 6, 3:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa, Wagoner	49 min
Jul 6, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	46 min
Jul 6, 3:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Tulsa, Wagoner	36 min
Jul 6, 3:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	37 min
Jul 6, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Pittsburg	27 min
Jul 6, 4:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee	53 min
Jul 6, 4:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	62 min
Jul 6, 4:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	34 min
Jul 6, 4:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	30 min
Jul 6, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah	40 min
Jul 6, 4:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw	16 min
Jul 6, 5:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	13 min
Jul 6, 5:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	25 min
Jul 5, 9:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	28 min
Jul 5, 9:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	26 min
Jul 5, 10:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	53 min
Jul 6, 1:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	31 min
Jul 6, 1:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	40 min
Jul 6, 3:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	38 min
Jul 6, 4:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	65 min
Jul 6, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.