Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Weak upper wave has initiated convection this afternoon across SE
OK and WC AR. Coverage is expected to remain low, so will only
include VCTS at KFSM and KMLC for the afternoon, with any cigs
remaining VFR. Otherwise VFR TAF elements will prevail at the
aforementioned sites and elsewhere through the valid period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Subtle upper wave moving across southwest Arkansas this morning
will continue to drift east today, resulting in scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas this afternoon. Hi-res guidance pretty aggressive
with advecting convection to the northwest into northeast Oklahoma during
the afternoon and evening. Latest radar trends suggests this
scenario may be overdone. That said, current pop configuration
heading into the afternoon looks good for now. Temperatures look
reasonable as well with slightly cooler temperatures across SE OK
and WC AR where the expected cloud and storm coverage is
anticipated.

First period element are in line, therefore no updated is planned
at this time.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon, primarily
across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.  The strongest
storms will be capable of producing a brief period of gusty winds.
Storm coverage is expected to diminish after sunset.
Outside of thunderstorm influence, heat index values
will rise into the 100 to 105 degree range across much of
eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will move into the area on Friday bringing
a chance of thunderstorms.  Drier and slightly cooler conditions
will follow the front over the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances
return early next week as a more humid airmass spreads back
across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
221 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

ARZ019-OKZ069-072-051945-
Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
221 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CRAWFORD...
NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 220 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Short, moving
west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Brushy...                         Short...
Uniontown...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 309 and
312.

LAT...LON 3569 9443 3549 9438 3541 9475 3567 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 082DEG 13KT 3557 9452

Lacy