Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Currently monitoring storms over SE Kansas that have become surface
based and may track into portions of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon,
mainly impacting KBVO. Atmosphere has become very unstable with
MLCAPES around 3000 J/KG, supporting severe threat. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to continue with gusty southwest winds
into Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1046 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast on track for this afternoon with no significant changes
anticipated. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
over southeast Kansas this afternoon with some of this activity
potentially moving into northeast Oklahoma this evening in low
level jet axis. Instability/shear profiles will support a severe
threat with large hail/damaging winds/heavy rainfall. Storms may
become elevated by this time, however short term trends will
continue to be evaluated concerning any low end tornado threat.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
125 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move
into portions of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, mainly north of
a Grainola, Jay line. Large hail to hen egg size and wind gusts to
70 mph are the main threats with these storms. Additionally, heavy
rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms, which may lead
to localized flash flooding. Additional storms may move into
northwest Arkansas later this afternoon or evening.

Ample sunshine south of the storms will result in hot and humid
conditions this afternoon. Relative humidity values will push heat
index values between 100 and 105 across much of eastern Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will continue to warm through mid week as upper level
high pressure builds over the southern plains. Warmer temperatures
will combine with higher dewpoints already in place, and will
likely result in heat index values between 105 and 110 for most of
eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. Heat advisory headlines will likely be required with
later forecasts.

The airmass will shift a little by the weekend, resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures across the area. Low end thunderstorm
chances will return over the weekend in conjunction with an
approaching frontal boundary

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
213 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

OKZ055-056-261945-
Nowata OK-Washington OK-
213 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Wann, moving east at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville...              Lenapah...
Wann...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3694 9541 3694 9543 3682 9543 3689 9591
      3700 9587 3700 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 284DEG 51KT 3696 9579