Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered to broken mid clouds are expected to continue to spread
across the CWA as a cold front moves through the region. Along and
ahead of the front...scattered convection will be possible over
mainly Northwest Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma through the
afternoon hours and will carry VCTS for Northwest Arkansas TAF
sites. Behind the frontal boundary...breezy northerly winds are
forecast with lighter northerly winds overnight into Sunday. Cloud
cover should begin to clear out this evening with mostly clear
conditions forecast overnight into Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1052 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
At mid morning...a cold front was located from Southwest Oklahoma
to Northeast Kansas. Out ahead of the front...an outflow boundary
associated with the decaying MCS over Southwest Missouri was
pushing rain cooled air southward into far Northeast Oklahoma.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly clear to mostly cloudy skies were common with
temps in the mid/upper 80s over East Central/Southeast Oklahoma
and West Central Arkansas.

Through this afternoon...the outflow boundary is expected to slow
its progression southward and get overtaken by the cold front
pushing southeast into/across the CWA. Will keep a slight chance
pop along/near the outflow boundary through the morning hours and
then continue the increasing pops for the afternoon hours across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas ahead of the front.
Large amounts of CAPE with marginal shear values are forecast ahead
of the front as the cap currently in place looks to erode this
afternoon. These conditions will allow for at least a limited
severe potential this afternoon into the evening hours before the
front exits the CWA. Damaging winds and large hail look to be the
main threats.

Also ahead of the cold front...dewpoints in the mid 70s and temps
warming into the low/mid 90s will aid in afternoon heat index
values reaching to the 105-106 degree range over parts of
Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas. Thus...will issue a
heat advisory for these locations running 18z-00z with the thought
that parts of the advisory could be cancelled early behind the
cold front. Behind the front...across Northeast Oklahoma into far
Northwest Arkansas...afternoon temps in the upper 80s to low 90s
will be possible along with breezy northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  88  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   66  87  63  89 /  30   0   0  10
MLC   65  85  61  85 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   58  86  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   59  82  53  83 /  20   0   0  10
BYV   61  85  57  84 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   63  85  60  87 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   60  84  57  86 /   0   0   0  10
F10   65  84  61  85 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   69  88  63  88 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION.....20

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

ARZ010-019-OKZ068>070-072-074-021830-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Haskell OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-
Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
1249 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN HASKELL...NORTHWESTERN
SEQUOYAH...SOUTHERN ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1248 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Stilwell to 3 miles east of
Porum. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Vian...                           Porum...
Marble City...                    Tamaha...
Brushy...                         Strickler...
Brushy Lake State Park...         Bunch...
Box...                            Mc Key...
Odell...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 288 and
310.

LAT...LON 3585 9425 3529 9490 3531 9533 3582 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 264DEG 25KT 3578 9468 3537 9521