Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1200 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Additional storm chances will increase at all sites later tonight
as an ongoing thunderstorm complex moves east northeast. Will
carry tempo groups at all sites into mid morning. Cigs to largely
remain VFR, but vsbys will fall into MVFR categories in
thunderstorms. Expect VFR conditions at all sites after 16z-18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 928 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Convective lull ongoing across the forecast area at this time with
focus turning to widespread convection being maintained over SW OK
/ NW TX region. Low level flow is shown to remain steady with
while mid level flow remains rather meager with resultant
propagation vectors allowing any sustained convective complex to
push into eastern OK later tonight. The remnant outflow boundary
across NE OK has become more diffuse however it may also serve as
somewhat of a focus later tonight.

Updated forecast will increase precip chances across SE OK while
also maintaining rather high chances across NE OK. Severe weather
potential is expected to remain rather isolated with the outside
potential for a more organized complex to emerge into SE OK later
tonight. This potential seems rather low at this point but will
reflect the possibility in related graphics.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
507 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Through mid evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Primarily Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...continuing into overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storms across far northeast Oklahoma have recently
weakened and moved north into Kansas.  Additional storms
are developing across north central Oklahoma north of
a strong outflow boundary.  These storms will pose mainly
periodic chances of large hail as they spread eastward
across northeast Oklahoma.  Should any storm develop along
or south of the outflow boundary it would pose a more
substantial severe weather risk.

Through the late evening and overnight hours the focus
will be toward storms moving eastward across Oklahoma.
These storms may spread into eastern Oklahoma after 10 PM
and maintain some risk of severe weather, primarily with
locally damaging winds.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will persist daily through next
week, however any severe weather risk looks to remain
isolated as winds aloft remain light.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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