Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of MVFR cigs along with widely scattered showers/thunderstorms
ongoing early this afternoon. Expect additional scattered thunderstorm
development along the dry line as it approaches the eastern OK
sites toward 20-21Z, with activity tracking into northwest AR by
late afternoon/early evening. Coverage remains quite uncertain so have
maintained VCTS wording. Activity should clear the region after 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1101 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Dry line as situated across western OK late this morning, with
scattered warm sector elevated convection across the forecast
area. Forecast eastward progression of the dry line continues to
be quiet slow, with the 12Z NAM/recent HRRR bringing the boundary
to near or just west of the U.S. 75 corridor around 21Z. Several
CAM solutions suggest intial isolated/scattered development is
possible around 19-20Z along the dry line with the activity
eventually exiting the region by mid-evening...with severe weather
possible during this timeframe.

Will keep Red Flag Warning as is for now and address the Wind
Advisory in another 1-2 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  50  29  53 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   45  55  34  53 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   43  54  32  56 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   38  49  27  52 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   40  50  28  47 /  50  10   0   0
BYV   41  51  29  46 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   41  51  30  53 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   38  48  27  47 /  20  10   0   0
F10   40  53  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   45  56  34  57 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>071-073.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-059-064-
     065.

AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
105 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING / CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF US 75 THIS AFTERNOON...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated to near Significant.
	AREA...Along and northwest of a Hugo to Muskogee to Jay line.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

Area at greatest risk...west of highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
An unstable and weakly capped atmosphere existed across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this afternoon. Strong
to severe thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon
ahead of an approaching dry line, with storms eventually moving
into western Arkansas by late afternoon or early evening. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing hail to the size of
baseballs, damaging winds to around 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.
The severe threat will shift east of the region by 10-11 PM.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop behind a
dryline as it surges into our area this afternoon. By late
afternoon, the dryline is expected to stretch along or near
highway 75. To the west of the dryline, very warm, dry and windy
conditions will lead to very aggressive fire behavior.

South to southwest winds will gust to near 40 mph through the
afternoon. A gradual drop in intensity is expected by early evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong and gusty northwest winds are expected this weekend behind
a cold front and strong upper level storm system. Freezing
temperatures are expected across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Strong south winds and warmer temps return early next week, as
will an increase in the fire weather danger.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
209 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

OKZ054-059-064-132000-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
209 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
CREEK AND PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 209 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
Glencoe, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Drumright...                      Oilton...
Jennings...                       Westport...
Osage...                          Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Terlton...
Maramec...                        Skedee...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Silver City...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3664 9660 3630 9610 3594 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9684 3625 9692
      3626 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 213DEG 43KT 3624 9682

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
218 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

OKZ063-068-069-131945-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
218 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...ADAIR AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Eldon, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Stilwell...                       Westville...
West Siloam Springs...            Colcord...
Watts...                          Eldon...
Adair State Park...               Proctor...
Christie...                       Maryetta...
Baron...                          Bunch...
Ballard...                        Natural Falls State Park...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3638 9461 3582 9451 3565 9482 3586 9497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 215DEG 55KT 3588 9482

69

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
304 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

OKZ054-055-132045-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
304 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Wynona, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Hominy...
Dewey...                          Barnsdall...
Copan...                          Ramona...
Wynona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Okesa...                          Tallant...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Wolco...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9581 3652 9581 3642 9599 3642 9600
      3641 9600 3624 9632 3642 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 227DEG 41KT 3644 9623

69