Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few isolated strong thunderstorms could impact KTUL/KRVS TAF sites
through mid afternoon with reduced visibilities due to heavy rain.
Additional thunderstorms will again be possible across NE OK late
tonight. Otherwise, ceiling heights will generally trend down
this evening into the overnight hours with IFR conditions likely
into Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1034 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread into eastern Oklahoma
by late morning into the early afternoon hours in association with
upper jet streak. Elevated instability appears just sufficient enough
for a few of the stronger storms to produce hail to the size of quarters.
Update has been sent to increase pops in some areas as well as timing
given latest radar trends. No other changes at this time. Another
round of elevated thunderstorms will be possible across northeast
Oklahoma late tonight before a more significant severe/heavy
rainfall threat develops late Monday afternoon/evening into the
overnight hours.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-260945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
100 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE
   STORM POTENTIAL...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Widely scattered strong thunderstorms continue early this afternoon
across portions of northeast Oklahoma. A few of these storms could
approach severe limits through mid to late afternoon with quarter
size hail and brief heavy rainfall. Further east, across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, mid level lapse rates
will likely not be sufficient enough for larger hail production.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over northeast
Oklahoma late tonight.  A few of these storms could also produce
large hail.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
         Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts
of the area Monday morning, with additional showers and
thunderstorms likely to develop Monday afternoon into Monday
night as a slow-moving cold front moves into the region. A few of
these thunderstorms will likely be severe, with both large hail
and damaging winds possible. The most likely area to see any
severe weather will be across eastern Oklahoma and perhaps into
far western Arkansas as well.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm potential, the threat of
locally heavy rainfall will increase Monday night due to the slow
movement of the front. With the upper level system expected to be
slow to push east of the area, the heavy rainfall potential will
linger through Tuesday night. Storm total rainfall amounts in the
2 to 5 inch range, with isolated totals to 7 inches, continue to
appear likely, which could lead to both river flooding and
isolated flash flooding.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Monitor the latest forecasts and statements given the expectation
of heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorm and flooding potential
through the early part of the upcoming week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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