Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1128 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread convection ongoing across E OK will continue to spread
eastward through the afternoon with periodic thunderstorm chances
mentioned at each terminal. Additionally low MVFR to IFR ceilings
will also spread eastward through the day with prevailing IFR
ceilings forecast overnight. Precip should diminish in coverage
from late evening through much of the overnight hours before
increasing again during the day Wednesday especially south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1046 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing warm advection and moisture return have combined to
support an increasing area of convection which should continue to
spread rather quickly across E OK and into NW AR around noon.
Further convective development is expected later today further
south nearer the region of deeper moisture profiles with overall
precip coverage remaining high from late afternoon through the
early evening hours. Steep lapse rates are in place and a few
strong storms have been noted this morning. This potential will
remain place through the day with hail being the concern from the
strongest storms. Updated forecast adjusted for precip trends
otherwise remaining elements are on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  55  72  40 /  90  60  30  10
FSM   64  53  71  48 /  80 100 100  60
MLC   61  57  70  43 /  90  70  90  30
BVO   62  53  72  37 /  80  70  20  20
FYV   63  52  68  43 /  80 100  70  40
BYV   63  51  67  43 /  60 100  60  30
MKO   61  55  70  43 /  90  80  60  20
MIO   64  53  70  40 /  70  80  20  20
F10   60  56  70  41 /  90  60  50  10
HHW   60  58  70  47 / 100  90 100  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
100 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...South of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this
afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
These showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
spread across the region through the evening hours. The heaviest
rainfall totals are forecast along and southeast of Interstate 44.
Given the recent heavy rainfall, localized flooding will be possible
through this evening.  Additionally, a few strong storm are possible
with hail up to nickel size possible.  The rains will diminish
from west to east this evening and areas of fog are likely to
develop.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rainfall Potential
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop early Wednesday
and spread across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible southeast of a line
from Fayetteville to McAlester.
Breezy winds will develop on Thursday with dry weather
prevailing through Saturday.  Thunderstorm chances
return toward the first part of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2018

OKZ065-066-070-071-271815-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
1133 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH...WESTERN
MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

At 1132 AM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Dustin, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Henryetta...                      Weleetka...
Dewar...                          Grayson...
Council Hill...                   Hoffman...
Hitchita...                       Bryant...
Pierce...                         Eram...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 234 and
263.

LAT...LON 3567 9571 3545 9552 3527 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9612 3535 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 235DEG 38KT 3533 9603

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
126 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2018

OKZ054>056-272015-
Osage OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
126 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

At 126 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Sunset Lake, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Dewey...                          Copan...
Wann...                           Bigheart...
Osage Hills State Park...         Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Hulah...                          Okesa...
Sunset Lake...                    Wah Sha She State Park...

LAT...LON 3685 9564 3665 9633 3682 9642 3700 9600
      3700 9572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 246DEG 50KT 3678 9629

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
133 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2018

OKZ071-073-272015-
Pittsburg OK-McIntosh OK-
133 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND
NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

At 133 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Stuart, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Crowder...                        Canadian...
Indianola...                      Hanna...
Raiford...                        Scipio...
Arpelar...                        Vernon...

LAT...LON 3505 9609 3506 9607 3509 9606 3512 9603
      3512 9601 3515 9601 3515 9598 3523 9598
      3535 9586 3515 9562 3483 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 224DEG 35KT 3491 9617

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