Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Tulsa, OK

825 
WWUS54 KTSA 150313
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1013 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

OKC113-150400-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180515T0400Z/
Osage OK-
1013 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

At 1013 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles east of Dexter to 6 miles west of Cedar Vale
to Grainola to 6 miles northwest of Shidler to 5 miles east of
Kildare, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Elgin...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...
Apperson...                       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9623 3695 9628 3674 9665 3674 9690
      3675 9688 3675 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 274DEG 40KT 3719 9664 3708 9661 3694 9665 3683
9675 3680 9695

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
931 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A broken band of storms has now organized from south central KS
down into far north central OK. Lone supercell that dropped down
into far northwest Osage county stopped, transitioned, and has now
lifted back into KS with the mean wind. Some of the storms appear
to be propagating south with an outflow boundary. There is some
indication that these storms may become a southward or
southeastward propagating MCS into northeast OK later tonight,
with a damaging wind threat. Other storms over central OK may
survive into eastern OK later tonight as well.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 612 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Uncertainty in aviation forecast this evening centered around
evolution of thunderstorms currently developing from southeast KS
into western OK. High-res forecast models continue to show some
signal for SE KS storms to eventually drop southeast later this
evening, potentially forming a complex which would sweep through
E OK after 06z tonight, possibly into NW AR by 10-12z. E OK storms
may have some potential for strong sfc wind gusts, any storms
moving int AR should be weakening. Could also see a period of
MVFR or even IFR conditions with more intense thunderstorms.
Additional storm development Tuesday is highly contingent on what
happens tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential tonight is the main focus of this forecast.
Scattered convection has developed from central Missouri into
southern Kansas to the eastern Texas panhandle this afternoon
ahead of a cold front, with an increase in convective coverage
expected over the next few hours.

Parts of northeast Oklahoma, mainly to the north and west of
Tulsa, may see showers and thunderstorms move into the area this
evening before they weaken later in the evening. A large hail and
damaging wind threat will exist with this early activity.

A more organized convective complex may move into eastern Oklahoma
later tonight. It is likely that convection will be on a downward
trend by the time it arrives, but at least a limited damaging wind
potential may exist for a time into parts of eastern Oklahoma.
Hi-res model output suggests this complex may track more south
than east later tonight, so will carry chance pops all the way to
the Red River tonight.

Convective chances Tuesday and Wednesday will largely be driven by
mesoscale processes. The storm complex later tonight into early
Tuesday may stabilize the area enough to keep afternoon convection
at a minimum Tuesday, but uncertainty warrants a continued
mention.

By Thursday into the first part of the weekend, dry and hot
weather will return. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into
the area Saturday night or Sunday, with models differing on just
how far south this boundary makes it. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase late this weekend into early next week with
this boundary somewhere in the vicinity.

Stayed close to guidnace temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  85  64  84 /  70  40  30  30
FSM   69  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  30
MLC   69  83  64  85 /  60  60  30  30
BVO   66  86  62  84 /  60  20  30  30
FYV   66  82  61  82 /  30  40  30  30
BYV   66  84  62  82 /  30  30  30  30
MKO   68  83  64  84 /  60  50  30  30
MIO   67  83  63  83 /  50  30  30  30
F10   68  84  64  85 /  70  50  30  30
HHW   69  85  65  87 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
640 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Northern Osage county.
    ONSET...After 7 PM...ending by 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...North of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into the evening, for areas to the north of
Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma. A limited risk of severe
storms will continue overnight, mainly for areas along and west of
highway 75 in northeast and east central Oklahoma. Hail to the size
of golfballs, damaging winds to 65 mph, and isolated tornadoes would
be the main threats with the late afternoon and early evening
storms, transitioning to a damaging wind threat overnight.

An isolated supercell over south central Kansas could affect far
northern Osage county over the next couple of hours. Other storms
may develop over north central Oklahoma late this afternoon ahead of
a dryline and south of a weak front. If storms do develop in this
region, they would move into northeast Oklahoma this evening and
would pose the greatest severe threat. Other storms developing well
to the west may organize into clusters and move east into the region
during the overnight hours. A gradually lessening damaging wind
threat would exist with these storms, mainly along and west of
highway 75, before weakening is expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A weak upper level trough and a residual boundaries left from
previous convection will maintain thunderstorm chances Tuesday and
Wednesday. Ridging aloft will bring a return to hot and dry
weather Thursday and Friday. A frontal boundary will bring another
round of thunderstorm potential mainly toward the latter part of
the upcoming weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy