Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Tulsa, OK

569 
WWUS54 KTSA 071957
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKC001-072015-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0268.000000T0000Z-181007T2015Z/
Adair OK-
257 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY...

At 256 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Watts, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Westville...                      Watts...
Ballard...                        

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 9456 3601 9454 3599 9458 3599 9466
      3601 9469 3616 9474 3616 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 211DEG 27KT 3605 9463 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR cigs will persist for the northeast OK TAF sites through
much of the afternoon with some improvement expected toward 00Z.
Scattered convection should continue for the afternoon and could
see some redevelopment later tonight especially across northeast
OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Scatteed areas of convection continue late this morning ahead of
a slowly retreating frontal boundary, with the greatest coverage
generally across northeast OK. CAM solutions suggest that the
activity will become more scattered going into the afternoon,
although the risk of locally heavy rain and isolated strong winds
will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  81  70  79 /  40  20  40  80
FSM   68  85  69  83 /  20  10  20  30
MLC   71  82  70  78 /  40  20  20  60
BVO   69  81  69  77 /  50  30  50  80
FYV   69  81  68  79 /  20  10  20  30
BYV   68  83  68  81 /  20  10  10  30
MKO   69  83  69  80 /  30  10  20  50
MIO   69  82  69  79 /  40  20  20  50
F10   69  82  69  78 /  40  20  30  80
HHW   69  83  69  80 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, mainly east of
    a Miami to McAlester line.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing through tonight.

DISCUSSION...
A band of showers and thunderstorms stretching from far northeast
Oklahoma into southeast Oklahoma will continue to lift northeast
through the afternoon. Afternoon heating will help destabilize the
atmosphere and along with improved wind shear may help some storms
become better organized. A few marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible this afternoon and early evening. Locally heavy rainfall
will continue to be a possible, especially in areas that received
heavy rainfall on Saturday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Abnormally high moisture values for this time of year will remain
in place through the middle of the week as a strong storm system
over the Desert Southwest slowly lifts northeast. The most
widespread rain will stay west of the area on Monday before
spreading east Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold front pushes
through the region. Heavy rainfall with flooding will be possible
on Tuesday along with the possibility of a more organized line of
storms and the threat of damaging winds. Drier and much cooler
weather is expected for the end of the week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ068-070-072-071830-
Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EAST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM
CDT...

At 1239 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Webbers Falls,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vian...                           Gore...
Webbers Falls...                  Cookson...
Cherokee Landing State Park...    Greenleaf State Park...
Pumpkin Center...                 Lake Tenkiller State Park...
Box...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 280 and
294.

LAT...LON 3577 9481 3575 9481 3544 9502 3545 9502
      3546 9504 3545 9506 3543 9508 3541 9508
      3540 9510 3545 9526 3586 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 208DEG 24KT 3548 9513