Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Tulsa, OK

820 
WWUS54 KTSA 150128
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
828 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKC113-117-150200-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-180815T0200Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
828 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 827 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Fairfax, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Hominy...
Wynona...                         Blackburn...
Nelagoney...                      Pershing...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 9669 3661 9669 3677 9622 3632 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 254DEG 32KT 3652 9654 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

674 
WWUS54 KTSA 150140
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKC113-117-150149-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-180815T0200Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
840 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL
PAWNEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3634 9669 3661 9669 3677 9622 3632 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 254DEG 32KT 3655 9640 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to VFR conditions will be common during this TAF period.
Could see brief IFR conditions within thunderstorm areas.
The main concern will be timing thunderstorms across the region
later this evening and into Wednesday. Mainly from 06 to 12z
in eastern Oklahoma and from 08 to 15z at the Arkansas sites
and KMLC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low centered over Kansas will continue moving northeast
tonight and Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing to our west, and this activity is expected to organize
into an MCS later this evening, which will then track across at
least the northern and central parts of our forecast area
overnight into early Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible, so will continue the flash flood watch as is.

Rain chances will lessen, but not entirely go away, later
Wednesday into Thursday behind the departing upper low. Several
upper level disturbances will track southeast through the plains
Thursday night through this weekend under northwest flow aloft,
with periodic MCS activity expected to affect at least parts of
area during this time frame. Trying to pinpoint exact timing and
location of greatest rain chances will be an exercise in futility,
so kept pops in the chance range for now.

A significant cold front for August is forecast to move across
the area early next week bringing an end to the rain chances and
pleasant temperatures for mid to late August.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms are developing along a boundary extending from
southeast Kansas through north central Oklahoma. The clouds today
have kept the airmass more stable. The most unstable air lies
across central into portions of east central Oklahoma. A few stronger
storms are possible through early evening. The greatest threat
with the storms will be strong wind gusts.

Storms may then develop late tonight into a more organized
cluster, and affect much of northeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas after midnight. If these storms do form, the main threats
will be very heavy rainfall with the potential for flash
flooding. Storms may also be capable of isolated damaging wind
gusts.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The bulk of the precipitation is expected to shift east of the
area by late Wednesday. However, active west to northwesterly
flow aloft will persist across the region, and will bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the week and
into next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
415 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKZ059-142145-
Pawnee OK-
415 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Maramec, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cleveland...                      Jennings...
Westport...                       Hallett...
Terlton...                        Maramec...

LAT...LON 3640 9654 3639 9652 3637 9652 3633 9657
      3632 9657 3630 9656 3630 9652 3633 9649
      3633 9646 3628 9642 3627 9639 3623 9633
      3623 9628 3616 9647 3616 9673 3624 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 237DEG 21KT 3621 9666

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
740 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKZ059-150130-
Pawnee OK-
740 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Morrison,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Jennings...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...
Maramec...                        Skedee...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9663 3640 9661 3638 9660 3637 9657
      3638 9656 3635 9656 3632 9657 3630 9656
      3616 9655 3616 9668 3618 9682 3624 9682
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3633 9703 3640 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 268DEG 28KT 3631 9701