Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Tulsa, OK

113 
WWUS54 KTSA 072148
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

OKC143-072215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180807T2215Z/
Tulsa OK-
448 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTY...

At 447 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Broken Arrow, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Leonard...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 224 and 230.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 9582 3611 9576 3596 9576 3590 9581
      3608 9595 3616 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 306DEG 27KT 3609 9586 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Lacy

768 
WWUS54 KTSA 072206
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
506 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

OKC143-072215-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180807T2215Z/
Tulsa OK-
506 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...
        
The severe winds which prompted the warning has moved out of the 
area. Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire at 515 PM.

LAT...LON 3614 9582 3611 9576 3596 9576 3590 9581
      3608 9595 3616 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 304DEG 11KT 3606 9580 

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Atmosphere continues to destabilize across portions of northeast
Oklahoma behind initial thunderstorm activity that moved through
earlier today with surface based CAPE approaching 4000 J/KG over
Creek county. As strong diabatic heating continues in conjunction
with approaching upper wave, expect scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop, generally west of Highway 75. Main
threat will be damaging downburst winds and to a lesser extent
nickel to quarter size hail.

Active weather pattern will persist for the next couple of days as
a series of level upper waves traverse the region in northwest
flow aloft. Thunderstorm complex could approach northeast Oklahoma
late tonight with storms spreading into southeast Oklahoma/west-
central Arkansas during the day. Although timing of storms becomes
less certain Wednesday night into Thursday, precipitation chances
will remain fairly high along and south of Interstate 40 with the
potential for heavy rainfall across far southeast Oklahoma.

Precip chances will begin to tapper off from north to south into
Friday. Dry conditions expected through the early part of the
weekend with near normal temperatures. Storm chances will once
again begin to increase Sunday/Monday as cut off low starts to
develop over far west Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  89  70  90 /  50  40  40  20
FSM   74  89  71  88 /  50  60  60  50
MLC   74  88  70  87 /  50  60  60  50
BVO   71  88  67  89 /  40  40  20  10
FYV   72  85  67  87 /  50  50  50  30
BYV   71  86  67  89 /  50  50  40  30
MKO   73  87  70  88 /  50  50  50  30
MIO   71  87  67  89 /  40  40  20  10
F10   72  87  69  88 /  50  60  50  40
HHW   75  92  71  88 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...ELEVATED SEVERE STORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and west of highway 75, along and south of highway 412 in northeast
			and east central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Much of northeast and east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe hail to the size of golfballs
and damaging winds to 70 mph this afternoon mainly across portions
of northeast and east central Oklahoma, along/west of highway 75
and along/south of highway 412. This threat will be greatest from
around 3 PM to 9 PM this evening. Weak low level shear will keep
the tornado potential very low, but nonzero.

Scattered thunderstorms are developing across north central
Oklahoma along an outflow boundary from previous storms last night
into this morning. These storms will move generally east and
southeast into portions of eastern Oklahoma thru the early evening
hours.

Another round of storms is expected to form this evening across
Kansas and move into northeast Oklahoma after midnight. With ample
instability, a few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible this afternoon into the overnight. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible primarily across northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas where the most concentrated activity is
expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY thru MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Wednesday night with locally heavy rainfall possible. The heaviest
rains will likely focus across southeast Oklahoma and continue to
shift southward into Thursday. Unsettled weather is expected to
continue into early next week as a number of disturbances remain
across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

OKZ059-064-072045-
Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hallett, moving
east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cleveland...                      Jennings...
Hallett...                        Terlton...
Maramec...                        Silver City...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3633 9667 3634 9657 3631 9657 3630 9655
      3630 9652 3631 9650 3633 9649 3633 9646
      3631 9644 3629 9643 3626 9637 3604 9641
      3612 9662 3616 9662 3616 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 285DEG 9KT 3623 9661

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
424 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

OKZ060-064-072215-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-
424 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND EAST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of Turley to 4 miles northwest of
Jenks Riverside Airport. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bixby...
Jenks...                          Catoosa...
Jenks Riverside Airport...        Gray...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 211 and 232.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3616 9611 3616 9600 3620 9600 3619 9581
      3616 9581 3616 9576 3597 9576 3601 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 269DEG 23KT 3618 9602 3607 9605

Lacy