Excessive Heat Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period, with the
exception of any isolated showers or storms which may affect some
of the northern sites late tonight. There is a cluster of storms
across northern and central MO this afternoon, which should stay
east of the NW AR terminal sites. Another cluster of storms has
formed over north central Kansas and these could move into
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri by late afternoon/early
evening. Confidence isn't high enough to add thunder to the TAF
forecast at this point.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
There is quite the dewpoint gradient across Oklahoma this morning
with low to mid 50s across far southwest Oklahoma and low to mid 70s
observed across north central and northeast Oklahoma. The recent
rain will likely be a factor in the temperature forecast today
and tomorrow.

Temperatures are already in the 90s for much of eastern Oklahoma,
and the going forecast looks good as low level thermal ridge
expands. Will monitor heat index values closely this afternoon.
Excessive heat warnings look marginal for today, given the
abundant low level moisture which will tend to keep the high
temps down a couple degrees. Tomorrow, if drier air can work into
the area, and where southwest winds can increase, there will be a
better chance of seeing temperatures exceeding 105 degrees. Friday
will be the warmer of the two days, before a backdoor front comes
into northeast Oklahoma by Saturday morning, dropping temperatures
back into the mid/upper 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 106  76  97 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   78 105  77 100 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   79 107  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74 103  72  94 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   74  99  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   73  99  71  94 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   76 106  76  98 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   75 100  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
F10   78 107  77  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   78 106  79 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....07
AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
110 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
110 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...This evening into the overnight hours.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Latest heat index values are in the 105 to 109 degree range across
eastern Oklahoma as of early afternoon. Temperatures are expected
to top out around 100 degrees in some locations by late afternoon.
Heat advisories remain in effect for today and Friday. Heat index
values near 110 to 115 are possible on Friday afternoon. Continue
to take precautions if you must be out in the heat.

Storms have formed this afternoon across northern and central
Missouri. Most of these should stay north and east of northwest
Arkansas. More storms are located in north central Kansas. This
cluster of storms may eventually affect far northeast Oklahoma,
southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas late tonight. Any
storms will have the potential for frequent lightning, heavy
downpours, and isolated damaging wind gusts.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will push through the area by Saturday bringing
somewhat cooler conditions, although heat index values will
likely still exceed 105 in some places this weekend into early
next week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
An increase in heat related responses is possible today and
Friday. Any local plans related to heat impacts may experience
an uptick in activation levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI