Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

662 
WWUS43 KTOP 111751
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1151 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018


KSZ008>012-020>024-034>038-111900-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180111T1800Z/
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Marysville, Blue Rapids, Frankfort, Sabetha, 
Seneca, Hiawatha, Horton, Concordia, Clay Center, Manhattan, 
Wamego, St. Marys, Holton, Minneapolis, Bennington, Abilene, 
Herington, Junction City, Council Grove, Alma, Eskridge, 
Maple Hill, Alta Vista, McFarland, Harveyville, and Paxico
1151 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

Accumulating snow and wintery precipitation is coming to an end
so the winter storm warning will expire. Wind gusts around 20 to 
30 mph may cause drifting of snow. Wind chills in the single 
digits below zero are expected through tonight.

$$

KSZ026-039-054-055-111900-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180111T1800Z/
Jefferson-Shawnee-Lyon-Osage-
Including the cities of Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, 
Grantville, Meriden, Nortonville, Topeka, Emporia, Osage City, 
Carbondale, Lyndon, Burlingame, and Overbrook
1151 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

Accumulating snow and wintery precipitation is coming to an end
so the winter weather will expire. Wind chills in the single 
digits below zero are expected through tonight.

$$

KSZ040-056-058-059-111900-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180111T1800Z/
Douglas-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
Including the cities of Lawrence, Ottawa, Burlington, Lebo, 
and Garnett
1151 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY...

Accumulating snow and wintery precipitation is coming to an end
so the winter weather advisory will expire. Wind chills in the 
single digits below zero are expected through tonight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
313 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Intense upper system evident on water vapor is currently moving
into southern KS with strong dynamic lift combining with
isentropic forcing across the CWA to produce a widespread shield
of rain at the moment. Meanwhile, strong 850-600mb frontogenetic
forcing has produced a band of moderate to heavy snow which is
approaching the CWA from the northwest. Expect precip to increase
through 15z as the two forcing mechanisms work to produce an axis
of moderate to heavy snow across mainly areas west of a Hiawatha
to Council Grove line this morning. This is where the forcing will
be strongest and moisture the deepest on the northwest periphery
of the upper system. Soundings suggest some instability so
response to forcing may be enhanced so snowfall may be heavy at
times this morning. Just as importantly...pressure gradient
combined with very strong 40kt winds atop the inversion will
produce strong gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph for a time this
morning. The combination of the winds and snow could lead to near
blizzard conditions in spots for a few hours this morning and have
opted to upgrade to a winter storm warning where the combo of wind
and snow appears to be greatest. Duration of snow will not be more
than 6 hours so short intense duration could lead to 2-5 inch
amounts. Further southeast the rain will transition to a brief
period of freezing rain then sleet to snow. Frontogenetical
forcing is not as strong and lift in dendritic growth zone not as
robust so feel that light snow and advisory appears more
appropriate for now. Any ice accumulations should also remain
light and if measurable a few tenths of an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Extended period features northwest flow becoming more amplified by
early next week. There will be at least a couple of chances for
light snow across the area one over the weekend and another with
an Arctic front early next week. Temperatures will remain below
average and could drop near or below zero again by early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Widespread rain with accompanying MVFR/IFR ceilings will
overspread the rest of the area shortly after 06Z tonight,
transitioning to snow from northwest to southeast over the course
of the morning. A narrow band of higher snowfall is expected
running NE to SW, possibly through MHK, where near blizzard
conditions may be possible for a short amount of time between 12
and 18Z. A mix of RA/SN/FZRA is possible towards TOP/FOE this
morning. This precip exits the area around 21Z. Gusty southerly
winds will quickly subside, but quickly veer to the northwest and
increase to 20 to 30 kts between 06 and 15Z today (earliest in
north central KS).

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ008>012-020>024-
034>038.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST today
for KSZ026-039-054-055.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon CST today
for KSZ040-056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-034>038-112130-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-
320 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect beginning at 1 AM to
3 AM tonight. Rain will change to snow tonight, with accumulating
snow continuing into Thursday morning. Blowing snow is expected.
Rapidly falling temperatures may cause lingering water on roadways
and elevated surfaces to freeze late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon
Thursday. Snow will persist into Thursday morning, with total
snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches expected and locally higher
amounts possible. Areas of blowing snow are expected.

A very cold air mass will once again settle across the region for
late this week and continue into this weekend and next week. Wind
chill values are expected to occasionally fall to zero to 15
below.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KSZ026-039-040-054>056-058-059-112130-
Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
320 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Late tonight rain may change over to snow and freezing drizzle
toward sunrise from Topeka to Oskaloosa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect 6 AM through noon
Thursday from Emporia to Topeka, and from 8 AM Through noon from
Lawrence to Burlington southeast. A wintry mix of precipitation is
expected causing light glazing of exposed surfaces. Also freezing
of wet surfaces will lead to slick and hazardous conditions.

A very cold air mass will once again settle across the region for
late this week and continue into this weekend and next week. Wind
chill values are expected to occasionally fall to zero to 15
below.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep