Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

As of 08Z Thursday morning northwesterly midlevel flow continues
across the central US. Water vapor analysis reveals two embedded
shortwave troughs, the first is positioned across eastern KS with
the second in eastern WY and MT. At the surface a diffuse front was
positioned from the Great Lakes region, southwestward through
southern SD.

For the rest of today and tonight...The aforementioned surface front
is progged to encroach the CWA later this afternoon and evening. By
late afternoon, short-term solutions suggest the boundary will
extend from far northeast KS into central KS. Slightly drier air
is expected to reside north and west of the boundary. As a
result, expect areas north and west of the boundary to remain
"thunderstorm free" this afternoon and evening. The same cannot
be said for areas south of the boundary. Forecast soundings
suggest mixed-layer parcels will be "inhibition-free" by early
afternoon with 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, especially along and
southeast of the KS Turnpike (I-35/335/70). As a result expect a
similar outcome as yesterday afternoon -- isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. With the weakly sheared environment remaining
overhead, expect outflow dominate, pulse thunderstorms. The
strongest updrafts may be capable of gusty winds and small hail.
As nocturnal cooling ensues near sunset, expect thunderstorms to
rapidly diminish. Midlevel cloud cover is expected to be on the
increase as the previously mention shortwave trough across eastern
WY/MT approaches the region. A slight increase in H85
temperatures should yield slightly warmer sfc temperatures this
afternoon as compared to yesterday with highs in the low to middle
90s. Lows tonight look to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

By Friday, models continue to show the broad mid-level ridge over
the western CONUS shifting northeastward into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push a weak surface cold front
and embedded mid-level shortwave southward across the outlook area.
With some destabilization possible during the afternoon hours, these
features may provide enough forcing for some scattered thunderstorm
development Friday afternoon and evening across east central Kansas.
 With 0-6km bulk shear values very low at less than 20kts, do not
anticipate any strong thunderstorm development.  As the mid-level
ridge continues to build into the central CONUS over the weekend, it
will push surface high pressure into the area, keeping conditions
dry through the weekend.  Focus then shifts to the mid-level low
models show developing over Texas over the weekend and slowly
meandering northward into the early half of next week. There is
still notable model uncertainty with regards to the timing and
tracking details of this low and how that will have an influence on
precipitation chances for the early part of next week.  At this
time, scattered precipitation may start lifting into the area as
early as Monday afternoon, with scattered precipitation chances
continuing through mid-week.  However, due to the model uncertainty
with the timing/tracking of this precipitation, have only some
chance PoPs in place.  Temperatures late week through the weekend
and early next week should stay fairly steady and seasonal for this
time of year, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and low
temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period with
afternoon CU and scattered thunderstorms possible from mid to
late afternoon. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing
wind gusts in excess of 40 kts, with outflow boundaries emanating
well beyond the parent storm. These storms will dissipate this
evening with light northerly flow setting in by Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
334 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-100845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
334 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, especially along and southeast of the Kansas
turnpike. The strongest storms may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1034 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW READING            38.58N 96.02W
08/08/2018                   LYON               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            10 INCH ELM TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
206 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

KSZ037-038-091930-
Wabaunsee-Morris-
206 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORRIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alta Vista, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alta Vista, Dwight and Volland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 9642 3880 9667 3887 9655 3887 9650
      3890 9650 3897 9639 3883 9625 3874 9634
      3874 9635 3872 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 051DEG 17KT 3884 9643