Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

As of 08Z Monday morning a cutoff mid-level low was centered across
the NV/ID/OR border intersection. An embedded shortwave trough was
positioned across eastern NM/western TX. The highly anticipated
surface trough extended from southeastern CO, northeastward into
northeastern IA. To the south of the boundary, VWP sites suggest a
35-40 kt LLJ extends from the Red River region into central IA.
Isentropic surfaces appear most favorable across central and east-
central NE -- collocated nicely with the ongoing showers and storms.
Neutral to perhaps isentropic downglide exists across much of the
CWA, therefore have a dry forecast through midday.

Transitioning into this afternoon and tonight, little movement is
expected with quasi-stationary front and should remain just NW of
the CWA. That being said, the aforementioned mid-level shortwave
trough is progged to lift NNE across portions of western and north
central KS. With MLCIN expected to be near zero by mid-afternoon,
there appears to be a favorable environment for thunderstorm
development, especially across central and north-central KS.
Moderate instability is expected with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A
veering wind profile with height coupled with a subtle 20-35 kt H5
speed max associated with the shortwave trough should briefly
increase effective shear values to 25 to 35 kts -- especially across
north central KS. This would tend to suggest the potential for
organized updrafts capable of large hail and damaging winds. This
notion matches up well with CAM solutions developing isolated to
scattered thunderstorms mainly northwest of a line from Abilene to
Hiawatha. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease after sunset
with the onset of nocturnal BL cooling.

In regards to heat concerns, one last day of excessive heat and
humidity is expected. With the front remaining north of the CWA
through much of the daylight hours, high temperatures are progged to
reach the low to upper 90s this afternoon with heat indices ranging
from 100 to 105.

Continuing into the overnight period, some uncertainty exists in
thunderstorm coverage across the CWA. The most favorable area for
continued thunderstorm activity appears to be across eastern NE/IA
where favorable boundary orientation and moisture transport exist.
That being said, a few thunderstorms may persist through the night,
especially across northern KS as weak perturbations within the mid-
level flow and a 20-30 kt LLJ overspread the area. The best
potential for an MCS/backbuilding of an MCS into the area looks to
hold off until after 12Z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Overnight trends will play a large role in severe storm chances
Tuesday, with models continuing to vary on where the boundary will
be even by 12Z. Warm sector atmosphere will continue to be
characterized by moderate to high instability and modest shear in a
warm troposphere, keeping primary severe weather concern as
downburst winds. With uncertainty on front's placement, precip
chances remain moderate throughout the day with an increase in
potential into the night as the upper wave approaches with decent
moisture convergence over central and eastern Kansas resulting.
Upper wave deepens a bit and should continue to generate more
convection Wednesday into Wednesday night. Chances for significant
instability continue to diminish but concern could turn to locally
heavy rainfall as PWs remain seasonally high in this stagnant
pattern. Temperatures should be much cooler for much of the area
Wednesday into Friday with cold sector deepening with convection
becoming more scattered and weaker. Models are in fairly good
agreement with another shortwave diving southeast into the central
and southern High Plains over the weekend, though temperatures look
to modify somewhat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Main concern is isolated TSRA near MHK after 20Z with models
continuing to show isolated convection. Main window looks to be
from 20Z-01Z. South winds will be gusty at times this afternoon
decreasing by 01Z. VFR conditions are expected outside of any
convection.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ009>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
448 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

KSZ009>012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-191000-
Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Clay-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-
Lyon-Osage-Franklin-
448 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat index values are expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees
this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening hours, mainly northwest of a line from Abilene to
Hiawatha. The primary hazards include large hail and damaging
winds. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the entire
area tonight, although severe weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KSZ008-020-058-059-191000-
Republic-Cloud-Coffey-Anderson-
448 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
evening hours, mainly northwest of a line from Abilene to
Hiawatha. The primary hazards include large hail and damaging
winds. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the entire
area tonight, although severe weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

KSZ008-182015-
Republic-
249 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Cuba, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Cuba and Munden.

LAT...LON 3973 9745 3980 9765 3995 9760 3989 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 199DEG 17KT 3979 9753

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
303 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

KSZ020-034-182030-
Cloud-Ottawa-
303 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OTTAWA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Delphos, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Miltonvale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 9760 3939 9740 3923 9751 3928 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 208DEG 26KT 3928 9762

Cohen