Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Topeka, KS

598 
WWUS53 KTOP 022210
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
510 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC061-149-161-022315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-180502T2315Z/
Geary-Riley-Pottawatomie-
510 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GEARY...RILEY AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

At 510 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles north of Green to 4 miles west of Milford
Lake, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, Westmoreland, Blaine, Riley, St. George, Milford,
Leonardville, Olsburg, Louisville, Randolph, Wheaton, Milford Lake,
Keats and Tuttle Creek Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north
central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3957 9622 3921 9619 3920 9621 3921 9624
      3918 9627 3920 9631 3915 9634 3917 9636
      3917 9639 3915 9639 3913 9696 3951 9696
      3957 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 272DEG 46KT 3951 9697 3913 9701 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Cohen

412 
WWUS53 KTOP 022250
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC061-022259-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-180502T2315Z/
Geary-
550 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3956 9622 3921 9619 3920 9621 3921 9624
      3918 9627 3920 9631 3915 9634 3917 9636
      3917 9639 3915 9639 3914 9685 3922 9685
      3954 9676 3957 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 261DEG 35KT 3957 9642 3919 9646 

$$

KSC149-161-022315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-180502T2315Z/
Riley-Pottawatomie-
550 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL RILEY AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

At 549 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles north of Blaine to near St. George, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, Westmoreland, Blaine, Riley, St. George, Olsburg,
Louisville, Randolph, Wheaton, Keats and Tuttle Creek Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3956 9622 3921 9619 3920 9621 3921 9624
      3918 9627 3920 9631 3915 9634 3917 9636
      3917 9639 3915 9639 3914 9685 3922 9685
      3954 9676 3957 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 261DEG 35KT 3957 9642 3919 9646 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

027 
WWUS53 KTOP 022305
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC149-161-022315-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-180502T2315Z/
Riley-Pottawatomie-
605 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY AND CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

At 605 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles east of Lillis to 3 miles west of Belvue,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Manhattan, Wamego, Westmoreland, Blaine, St. George,
Louisville and Wheaton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3956 9622 3921 9619 3920 9621 3921 9624
      3918 9627 3920 9631 3915 9634 3917 9636
      3917 9639 3915 9639 3915 9657 3956 9656
      3957 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 254DEG 42KT 3959 9620 3921 9624 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Mid to upper-level closed low pressure is currently located over
AZ with a broad cyclonic jet streak rounding the base and
spreading over the plains. At the surface there is a quasi-
stationary boundary stretching from southwest KS into southeast NE
with a dry line extending southward through the TX Panhandle. A
weak midlevel shortwave trough has ejected from the parent low
pressure and is currently lifting northeastward over the TX
Panhandle. This wave has provided enough ascent for storms to
initiate along the stationary boundary in southwest KS where low-
level convergence has maximized. Sufficient low-level tropospheric
moisture return has resulted in mid to upper 60 dew points within
the buoyant sector across eastern KS. This along with steep
midlevel lapse rates has yielded ML CAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg with
very little CIN in place. Pockets of partly cloudy skies has
allowed surface heating to further destabilize the warm sector.
Surface winds along and near the stationary boundary have veered
to the southwest while the winds across east central KS have
remained out of the south and backed locally. As that wave lifts
northeastward the midlevel winds increase resulting in effective
bulk shear of 45 kt and elongated hodographs. The effective SRH
should become maximized around 100-200 m2/s2 mainly across east
central KS deepening on the exact location of the midlevel speed.
Convective initiation has already began along the boundary in
southwest KS, and storms are forecasted to move northeastward
through central KS. If a cold pool can become established this
cluster of storms could accelerate through the area as a line or
bowing segments. Given the CAPE and shear embedded supercells are
possible. As the convective outflow progresses eastward additional
storm development is likely as it moves into east central KS.
There is an outside chance for an isolated supercell ahead of the
line. The 0-3 km shear is out of the southwest so if any segment
becomes orientated northwest to southeast the tornado potential
increases. If storms are able to stay semi-discrete then the
tornado potential increases as well. Damaging wind will be the
most likely threat although very large hail is possible with any
supercells. Wind driven hail could also be possible with any
bowing segments or embedded supercells.

The convection should continue to advance eastward through the
early evening and exit the area around midnight. The uncertainty
will be additional development as the low-level jet increases
tonight. Isolated to scattered storms could linger into the early
morning as moisture convergence becomes maximized over the area
tonight. The PW values are relative high for this time of year and
warm cloud depths are fairly deep. This will result in efficient
rainfall producers so amounts could range from 1-2" with locally
higher amounts especially if the later development can train over
the same locations impacted earlier. The flash flood watch has
been expanded eastward to highlight this threat through tomorrow
morning. Tomorrow the main mid to upper-level low begins to lift
out of the southwest, which will force the boundary eastward.
Depending on the morning activity and speed of the low strong to
severe storms could develop along the boundary as it moves through
far northeast and east central KS tomorrow afternoon and or
evening. There will be plenty of instability within the buoyant
sector although destabilization will depend on morning activity
and cloud coverage. The deep layer shear appears to be orientated
orthogonal to the boundary and forcing will be strong therefore
convection could go linear quickly. Given the deep layer shear
perhaps initial semi-discrete supercells will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

A progressive pattern sets in for the extended period with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level ridging builds into the western U.S. for Friday and
the weekend with a broad and diffuse surface trough sliding down
on Sunday morning, which may bring a slight chance for showers and
storms. Slightly cooler air filters in behind the boundary for
early next week with H850 temps falling to around +7C by Monday
morning. The surface high quickly moves into the Ohio River Valley
on Monday with an H500 trough sliding through late Tuesday and
Wednesday morning and would bring the next chance for showers and
storms. Model confidence erodes by midweek given the progressive
pattern and growing discrepancies between the synoptic solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and early
evening with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Large hail
and a tornado is also possible. Brief IFR/LIFR conditions and
gusty winds are possible with the storms. The uncertainty will be
tonight as showers and storms may linger through tomorrow morning.
Have included a VCTS to handle the uncertainty with chances and
coverage for late in the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Sanders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
314 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected to move into
north central Kansas this afternoon and spread east over
northeast and east central Kansas through the early evening. The
majority of the severe weather should be done by midnight.
Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and very heavy
rainfall will be possible. A flash flood watch is in effect for
much of the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible across east
central and parts of northeast Kansas Thursday afternoon. The
most likely timing would be from the mid afternoon to early
evening hours. Storms may be capable of large hail, damaging
winds, heavy rainfall and perhaps a few tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 WNW BENNINGTON        39.05N 97.65W
05/02/2018                   OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL OCCURRING FOR 3 MINUTES.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
434 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             6 N WELLS               39.22N 97.55W
05/02/2018  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
447 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSZ035-022230-
Dickinson-
447 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from New Cambria to near Galva. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, Enterprise, Hope, Woodbine and Carlton.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3888 9737 3891 9693 3887 9693 3887 9689
      3881 9689 3881 9693 3861 9693 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 243DEG 35KT 3888 9751 3836 9755

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
502 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 N CLAY CENTER         39.39N 97.12W
05/02/2018  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N CLAY CENTER         39.39N 97.12W
05/02/2018  U60.00 MPH       CLAY               KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            STRONG WINDS REPORTED ALONG THE GUST FRONT. POWER IS OUT
            IN THE AREA.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW CLAY CENTER       39.42N 97.14W
05/02/2018  M61 MPH          CLAY               KS   MESONET

&&

JP