Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Topeka, KS

775 
WWUS53 KTOP 210115
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
815 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

KSC027-041-210145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-180921T0145Z/
Dickinson-Clay-
815 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR DICKINSON AND CLAY COUNTIES...

At 815 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Leonardville to 4 miles northeast of Gypsum,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Clay Center, Herington, Chapman, Solomon, Wakefield,
Enterprise, Hope, Woodbine, Manchester, Longford, Carlton, Oak Hill,
Talmage, Idana and Moonlight.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 289.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9737 3941 9733 3941 9696 3897 9696
      3898 9695 3898 9693 3887 9693 3887 9689
      3881 9689 3881 9693 3861 9693 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 278DEG 27KT 3936 9691 3874 9737 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

528 
WWUS53 KTOP 210136
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
836 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

KSC027-041-210146-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-180921T0145Z/
Dickinson-Clay-
836 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DICKINSON AND CLAY COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3930 9737 3941 9733 3941 9696 3897 9696
      3898 9695 3898 9693 3887 9693 3887 9689
      3881 9689 3881 9693 3861 9693 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 267DEG 41KT 3937 9661 3875 9708 

$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

The latest subjective surface mesoanalysis indicates a composite
front/outflow boundary extending from east-central NE into north-
central KS crossing Smith County KS and extending farther southwest
toward the Dodge City area. Thunderstorms continue increasing in
number and intensity in proximity to this boundary, as its
consolidation occurs from north to south, and cold pools expand and
congeal. Single-site radar data in proximity to the composite
boundary suggest that much of this convection is lagging behind the
leading edge of the cooler air/radar-indicated fine line by about 20
to 30 miles. However, given the shallow nature of the composite
boundary, given the lack of contiguous deep convection, and given
midlevel lapse rates around 7.0-7.5 C/km, adequate surface-based
buoyancy with surface-based effective inflow do exist on the cool
side of the composite boundary. Moreover, with temperature-dewpoint
spreads on the order of 20-25F ahead of this boundary, coupled with
DCAPE around 1100-1400 J/kg, a severe-wind risk is ongoing, and
present indications are that this potential will spread into the
CWA in the vicinity of Republic and Cloud Counties around
630PM -- with this activity subsequently spreading elsewhere across
north-central and northeastern KS thereafter. The VAD wind
profile at KTWX highlights unidirectional south-southwesterly flow
in the lowest 5 kft above radar level -- highlighting the
moderate-intensity momentum in place. With the forthcoming
initial phases of nocturnal decoupling fostering the formation of
a boundary-layer speed maximum, additional support for convective
momentum transport will maintain isolated to widely scattered
severe-wind potential through the late evening -- even with
undercut convection evolving in an anafrontal flow regime --
especially north of a Council Grove to Topeka line. This is where
the greatest amount of preceding cold-pool phasing will have taken
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

For details regarding the convective evolution and mesoscale trends
through this evening and the early overnight hours, please reference
the Mesoscale Discussion section above. The leading edge of the
consolidating frontal zone is forecast to have moved southeast/south
of the forecast area by late tonight, with much cooler and drier air
being advected into the region behind the front. Precipitation may
linger across parts of east-central KS and vicinity through early
Friday morning, but should be shifting south of the region during
the day, with clouds slowly clearing from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures on Friday are expected to be considerably cooler
than those of today, with high temperatures on Friday in the middle
60s to around 70F. These readings are several degrees below
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Surface high pressure will begin to move into northeast Kansas by
Friday night, clearing skies from northwest to the southeast with
lows dropping into the upper 40s by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures stay mild (mid to upper 70s) through the weekend as
this high continues to influence the area through Sunday.  An upper
level trough begins to move towards the central Plains Sunday into
Monday, with a frontal system expected to reach central Kansas on
Monday.  Models are still a bit off with the exact timing of this
front, although the consensus for the best chances for storms being
overnight on Monday into Tuesday.  GFS soundings do indicate the
potential for some stronger storms late Monday afternoon if storms
can form that early, although storms are likely to be elevated by
the evening.  Shear on the order of 30-40 knots indicate stronger
storms cannot be ruled out at this time.

With the frontal system holding off until Monday night, highs on
Monday look to be near 80 degrees with gusty southerly winds in the
afternoon.  The ECMWF keeps precipitation lingering through the
afternoon Tuesday, with the GFS a bit quicker to move showers out of
the area.  High pressure behind the front moves in Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing for another couple days of dry weather.
Temperatures drop back into the low and mid 70s behind the front,
with lows near 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. A line of
scattered TSRA with wind gusts to 50 kts will be possible mainly
at MHK toward 02Z and have timed the storms and gusts at MHK
between 02Z-03Z. Further east storms are expected to weaken as
they approach TOP and FOE and have maintained vcsh for now and
will continue to monitor. Brief period of MVFR cigs is possible
with the convection and also behind a cold front. South winds will
shift to the northwest behind the front as it moves through the
terminals this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Cohen
SHORT TERM...Cohen
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
322 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered strong to perhaps locally severe
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of north-central
and northeast Kansas from 6 PM to 10 PM this evening, especially
north of a line from Council Grove to Topeka. Damaging wind gusts
and small hail will be the main hazards with the most intense
storms, and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Thunderstorms will weaken later this evening, as they overspread
the remainder of the region into the overnight hours. However,
locally gusty winds and heavy rain will remain possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Cohen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
707 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND GST     REPUBLIC                39.92N 97.82W
09/20/2018  E60 MPH          REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REPUBLIC                39.92N 97.82W
09/20/2018                   REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
728 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

KSZ034-210100-
Ottawa-
728 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles south of Aurora to 4 miles southeast of
Culver. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bennington, Wells and Niles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3931 9761 3931 9737 3896 9737 3896 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 274DEG 40KT 3941 9750 3893 9769

Cohen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
733 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     JAMESTOWN               39.60N 97.86W
09/20/2018  E65 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
750 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW TESCOTT            39.01N 97.88W
09/20/2018  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&