Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Topeka, KS

532 
WWUS53 KTOP 022153
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
453 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSC143-022245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-180902T2245Z/
Ottawa-
453 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

At 453 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Culver, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Culver, Wells and Niles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9767 3927 9746 3896 9739 3896 9779
      3907 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 223DEG 12KT 3900 9771 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

466 
WWUS53 KTOP 022204
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
504 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSC143-022245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-180902T2245Z/
Ottawa-
504 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

At 504 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of
Culver, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Culver, Wells and Niles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9767 3927 9746 3896 9739 3896 9779
      3907 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 233DEG 9KT 3901 9769 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

285 
WWUS53 KTOP 022210
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
510 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSC143-022245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-180902T2245Z/
Ottawa-
510 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

At 510 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bennington,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Culver, Wells and Niles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9767 3927 9746 3896 9739 3896 9779
      3907 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 236DEG 13KT 3902 9767 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Cohen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave across west central KS with
another wave moving toward KS out of eastern NM. 850mb VWP network
shows rather uniform SSE flow of 15-20 kts at this time across the
region with the 850mb front across central NE. Sfc map shows a low
across southwest KS with a diffuse boundary extending ENE into
northern KS. Vis satellite imagery also shows what appears to be
an elevated boundary that extends south into north TX. this
boundary is acting as a focus for convection at the moment from
near TOP south toward ICT.

For tonight...main concern is excessive rains and potential
flooding. Expect convection to develop across west/central KS near
RSL/Hays toward SLN through early evening. Effective shear of
35-45 kts may allow for early discrete cell/supercell
characteristics however hodographs become messy in the mid-levels
so evolution into multicell clusters appears likely or short line
segments as the evening wears on. Main severe risk would appear to
be downburst winds through the evening with some hail risk across
the western counties. Poor mid-level lapse rates should temper
any greater hail risk however. Tornado threat is non zero but
appears to be limited to areas across our far west/sw counties for
a time late this afternoon or early evening but even this appears
conditional on storm evolution.

Greater concern is flooding given overall mesoscale and synoptic
set up. PWATs approaching 2" combined with a modest but present
25-35kt LLJ and a source of MUCAPE of 1-2k overnight will exist in
region of upper divergence in right entrance region of upper jet.
Evolution of convection into a cluster or line appears likely and
storm motion/corfidi vectors suggest ENE movement however thetae
ridge will remain anchored across central KS so backbuilding
appears likely too so could see training. HREF ensemble precip
matched mean clusters max precip across central KS where amounts
in excess of 3" appears likely. Much uncertainly still exist
however in the exact placement of the cluster overnight especially
in how far south and east any of the heaviest rains could fall.
At the moment we do not anticipate major changes to the flood
watch area for tonight but those near the flood watch area
including the Topeka area need to stay aware of trends tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, The very wet pattern will continue through
the week with chances for t-storms and locally heavy rains
forecast to persist through Friday and perhaps into Saturday.
Another wave will move across the area Monday night into Tues with
more heavy rains and by Weds the 850mb front will drop into the
area which will serve as a focus for heavy rains into late week.
The atmosphere will remain very moist with PWATS well above climo
avg likely around 2".

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

T-storm coverage should increase this evening with best chances
through 6Z expected to to around MHK where we have attempted to
place more timing detail into MVFR/IFR VIS conds due to tsra.
Bottom line showers and t-storms will increase in coverage through
the period with widespread rain/tsra expected to push conds into
the MVFR with periods of IFR possible due to tsra overnight.
Still not certain about timing for TOP/FOE for worst conds so have
opted to keep IFR mention out for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-
034>036.

&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
335 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight. A few
of the storms may be severe with damaging winds the main hazard
in the late afternoon and evening hours. An isolated tornado may
also be possible early this evening as would a low risk for large
hail but this risk appears to be limited to areas west of a
Junction City to Marysville line early this evening.

The greater concern is widespread heavy rainfall overnight across
central and parts of northeast Kansas where a Flash Flood Watch
is posted. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible.
This may cause flash flooding so remember don't drive through
flooded roads!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday with periods of heavy
rainfall being possible during the day. An active weather pattern
brings continued chances for thunderstorms through much of the
upcoming week so the risk for flooding could persist through the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through sunset mainly west of a
Junction City to Marysville line. Rainfall reports are also
encouraged overnight and especially Monday morning.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW REPUBLIC           39.93N 97.83W
09/02/2018  M2.69 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 12 PM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
419 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSZ034-022145-
Ottawa-
419 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Culver, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bennington and Culver.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 9762 3896 9757 3896 9787 3900 9788
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 215DEG 14KT 3896 9779

Cohen