Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Topeka, KS

873 
WWUS53 KTOP 170304
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1004 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSC111-170330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-180817T0330Z/
Lyon-
1004 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY...

At 1003 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Neosho Rapids, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hartford and Neosho Rapids. 

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 137 and 138.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9617 3842 9605 3832 9595 3826 9595
      3826 9596 3817 9596 3817 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 325DEG 16KT 3834 9609 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BD

506 
WWUS53 KTOP 170316
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1016 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSC111-170330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-180817T0330Z/
Lyon-
1016 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY...

At 1015 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hartford,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hartford and Neosho Rapids. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3832 9609 3838 9601 3832 9595 3826 9595
      3826 9596 3817 9596 3817 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 317DEG 20KT 3828 9601 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BD

827 
WWUS53 KTOP 170326
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1026 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSC111-170335-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0218.000000T0000Z-180817T0330Z/
Lyon-
1026 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
southern portions of Lyon County.

LAT...LON 3832 9609 3838 9601 3832 9595 3826 9595
      3826 9596 3817 9596 3817 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 329DEG 23KT 3824 9598 

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
653 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

In the wake of the aforementioned convection and weak-cold-frontal
passage, drier air will be slow to spread southward across the
region while a weak surface ridge develops southward behind the
front. Sufficient lingering boundary-layer moisture -- aided by
moisture fluxes atop areas of wet ground -- combined with nocturnal
radiational cooling of the surface layer will support near-surface
saturation. This could be manifested in some potential for fog,
though low-level flow/vertical mixing may result in stratus
formation. Confidence in stratus versus fog formation is limited,
though some potential for both will exist and will be dependent on
mesoscale mass fields for which uncertainty is present. Lows tonight
will be in the middle 60s near the Nebraska border, to near 70F
across southern portions of east-central Kansas. Any stratus/fog
should erode Friday morning as diurnal heating commences. The weak
surface ridge will move across the area on Friday, with partly to
mostly sunny skies expected by afternoon and near-to-slightly-below-
normal high temperatures in the middle/upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

On Saturday the midlevel trough transverses over the Ohio river
valley allowing surface high pressure to build across northeast
Kansas. Return flow becomes established by Sunday as another compact
midlevel shortwave tracks southeastward over the northern High
Plains. Elevated convection is possible early Sunday morning for
portions of central Kansas. As the deeper moisture spreads eastward
ahead of the approaching shortwave so will the elevated convection
during the morning and early afternoon on Sunday. The associated
precipitation and cloud cover may limit the boundary-layer
destabilization to far eastern Kansas. It is difficult to determine
how the ongoing convection will interfere with surface-based
convective development later in the afternoon. There will not be a
well-defined surface boundary to focus low-level convergence. If
surface heating is sufficient modest instability may be possible in
far eastern Kansas in conjunction with 20-30 kt of deep layer shear.
A stronger storm embedded within a large precipitation shield can
not be ruled out, but organized severe weather does not seem likely.
Into the afternoon large-scale forcing will be increasing, which
will promote precipitation redevelopment across the area through out
the day and into the overnight. By sunrise on Monday the midlevel
trough passes over the forecast area. There are some hints that a
synoptic-scale dry slot could cause a break in the rainfall before
wrap around precipitation moves across the area during the day
Monday. The potential for flooding still appears fairly low given
the current model QPF amounts. An area-wide rainfall of 0.75-1.25"
is expected over a 48-hour duration. Brief periods of heavy rainfall
rates can not be ruled given the PWATs approaching 1.80". An
expansive surface high pressure builds into the region on Tuesday
and Wednesday bringing drier air and temperatures slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, still expect that some TS potential still
exists during the early evening over the terminals. Have opted to
keep VCTS with low confidence in timing and locations for any
storm development. VFR conditions expected outside of any storms
that do develop. However, still potential for some areas to
develop shallow fog overnight and/or low stratus. Coverage and
certainty of this is rather low and will be evaluated as the
evening progresses.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cohen
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
232 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
232 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the entire area this afternoon and evening, primarily between 3
and 9 PM. The most intense storms will be capable of producing
hail of quarter to golf ball size, locally damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Cohen/Bunker

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E GARNETT             38.28N 95.22W
08/16/2018  M60 MPH          ANDERSON           KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION K689, 1 E GARNETT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
828 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE HARRIS            38.26N 95.41W
08/16/2018  M3.01 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AND STILL RAINING.

&&

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
846 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ054-170215-
Lyon-
846 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYON COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bushong, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Allen, Admire and Bushong.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 132.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 128 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3858 9636 3866 9635 3874 9627 3860 9595
      3859 9595 3837 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 308DEG 25KT 3863 9626

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
909 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ035-170245-
Dickinson-
909 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 909 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Hope, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, Hope and Carlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3890 9737 3877 9693 3861 9693 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 298DEG 17KT 3877 9718

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
913 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ037-170245-
Morris-
913 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 912 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Council Grove Lake, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Dunlap and Council Grove Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3868 9666 3874 9639 3874 9635 3852 9635
      3852 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 322DEG 27KT 3867 9652

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
925 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             6 NNE EMPORIA           38.48N 96.15W
08/16/2018  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW