Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Topeka, KS

320 
WWUS53 KTOP 282105
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
405 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSC031-282130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-180728T2130Z/
Coffey-
405 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTY...

At 405 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of
Gridley, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Gridley and Le Roy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9591 3824 9574 3804 9561 3804 9593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 340DEG 12KT 3814 9583 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Sanders

054 
WWUS53 KTOP 282115
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
415 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSC031-282130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-180728T2130Z/
Coffey-
415 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTY...

At 415 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gridley, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Gridley and Le Roy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 9588 3817 9570 3804 9561 3804 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 346DEG 12KT 3812 9582 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Sanders

815 
WWUS53 KTOP 282127
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
427 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSC031-282136-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-180728T2130Z/
Coffey-
427 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3813 9588 3817 9570 3804 9561 3804 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 346DEG 12KT 3810 9581 

$$

Sanders

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
342 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

As of 19Z Saturday afternoon a murky surface pattern remains across
central and eastern KS. One feature of note -- a meso-low -- was
positioned across central KS in portions of Geary and Morris
Counties. To the south and east of this mesoscale feature, an area
of Cu has developed where maximum sfc has been ongoing --
temperature at EMP is 93. Recent visible satellite trends suggest
agitation increasing with storms developing in portions of Lyon and
Coffey Counties. Further development is expected through the
afternoon as inhibition continues to weaken along with continued
ascent provided by the meso-low. RAP analysis suggests up to 1500
J/kg of MLCAPE will reside across east-central KS -- primarily
east of Highway 77 and south of Interstate 70. Sufficient
effective bulk shear values near 30-35 kts should allow for
organized updrafts -- possibly supercells. The primary hazards
with the strongest updrafts include large hail and damaging winds.
As nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer ensues after sunset,
convection should diminish.

Late this evening into the overnight...

Our attention turns westward for additional thunderstorm activity
late this evening into early Sunday. Upslope surface flow
continues to reside across the High Plains with northwesterly mid
and upper level flow across the central US. Mesoanalysis suggests
a H5 speed max has overspread the central High Plains in portions
of WY and CO. Regional radar reveals developing convection from
southern CO to northern WY. Short term and CAM solutions suggest
multiple thunderstorm complexes are likely this evening into the
overnight. The first is developing within the Palmer Divide
region in eastern CO. General propagation should keep this MCS
west of the forecast area. The second potential MCS is developing
across eastern WY. Again, propagation vectors orientated towards
the southeast suggests this particular MCS would traverse the
entire CWA. Surprisingly enough, decent agreement exists amongst
short term and CAM solutions with the arrival time to north-
central KS in the 03z to 06z range. Latest trends from the RAP and
HRRR suggest WAA ahead of the MCS should yield an environment
comprised of MUCAPE between 2000-2500 J/kg. This thermodynamic
environment coupled with impressive midlevel flow for July
standards -- 35 kts at H7 -- should result in efficient convective
momentum transfer and subsequent potential for damaging winds.
Large hail is a potential as well given the moderate instability
and sufficient effective shear, although updraft interactions
should temper hail concerns. More importantly, confidence is
increasing for widespread heavy rainfall. Latest trends suggest
widespread amounts greater than a half-inch with localized higher
amounts.

Sunday...

Ongoing showers and storms are likely during the mid to late
morning hours as the remnants of tonight's MCS exits the region.
The forecast then becomes complicated Sunday afternoon. Sunday
afternoon and evening's thunderstorm potential is highly dependent
on tonight's evolution. Persistent cloud debris through the day
tomorrow will limit storm potential. CAM and mid-range guidance
suggests additional thunderstorm development across the High
Plains tomorrow afternoon. Given the expected cloud debris across
eastern KS, any MCS progression would likely stay west of the CWA,
where better instability is expected to reside.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

The main midlevel trough is progged to eject into the upper
midwest region Monday into Tuesday. As a result shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Monday evening. A
drying trend should ensue thereafter as the midlevel ridge
amplifies in the western US with continued northwest flow across
the central US. Fortunately, a drastic warmup is not anticipated
through the week with temperatures in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Ongoing showers and storms across east-central KS are expected to
remain east of TOP/FOE through the afternoon hours. Additional
storm activity is expected to impact the terminals after 06Z.
These storms will be capable of gusty winds exceeding 30kts and
VSBY reduction due to heavy rainfall. MVFR cigs are expected to
develop near sunrise Sunday. Shower and storms chances look to
drastically decrease near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
404 AM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-290915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
404 AM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a small chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
from this afternoon into the overnight hours, from portions of
north-central to east-central Kansas. Locally damaging wind gusts
and hail up to the size of quarters could accompany the most
intense storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A small chance for a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out over portions of east-central Kansas on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Cohen/Drake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSZ056-059-281815-
Franklin-Anderson-
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Princeton, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greeley, Lane and Rantoul.

LAT...LON 3830 9525 3855 9523 3859 9507 3830 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 270DEG 18KT 3847 9521

Sanders