Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Topeka, KS

777 
WWUS53 KTOP 132241
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSC117-157-201-132251-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180713T2245Z/
Republic-Washington-Marshall-
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN REPUBLIC...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
545 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4000 9641 3963 9733 3972 9749 4000 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 238DEG 24KT 3986 9707 

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This afternoon, convective temperatures within an area of intense
surface heating within an an axis of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE per
SPC meso analysis have allowed scattered showers and storms to
develop.  With little deep layer shear through the column, have seen
average storms last from a few minutes to about a half an hour with
little in the way of organization.  With DCAPE values on the order
of 1100 J/kg, LCL heights around 2000 meters and inverted V
soundings with mixed layer up around 750mb level, some storms have
the capability to produce mainly strong gusty outflow winds as they
collapse.  Most likely, winds should remain below severe limits but
can rule out one or two damaging gusts of wind.

GOES-16 WV and VIS imagery along with surface obs suggest that the
surface frontal boundaries extend from southwestern IA back through
north central areas into portions of central and western KS.  This
will be the focus for further later evening and overnight storm
development as the upper trough translates to the east with best
forcing remaining north of the forecast area.  Therefore, outside of
this afternoons development expecting increasing storm chances into
the overnight period after from north central areas into
northeastern KS progressing slowly east overnight.  Isentropic
ascent augmented by a weak LLJ will help keep some storms going
overnight and possibly linger into the morning hours tomorrow.
Concerns of off and on showers into the day time as well but have
kept chances low at this time into the afternoon with focused areas
mainly over the eastern and east central areas of the forecast area.
This lingering boundary will keep chances into early evening.  It is
possible that cloud coverage lingers much of the day.  But, if some
clearing can take place, then more destabilization will allow for
more storm coverage most likely.  However, with weak deep layer
shear expected, severe weather is not expected at this time.  From
tonight through the overnight, some areas will likely see more rain
than others.  Focused areas that could see the most precip will be
from Abilene through Manhattan to Hiawatha vicinity considering
these areas are already seeing some training of storms.  With the
area in drought conditions, do not currently expect that flooding
will be a widespread concern.  However, some areas could see rain
amounts stack up quickly with short-term rises in small creeks and
streams as well as ponding on roads as PWAT amount remain around 1.7
inches allowing for efficient rain producing storms with slow storm
motion vectors and weak mid level flow in place.

Considering all this in relation to the other hazard in place being
that of the heat advisory, most locations have struggled to reach
advisory levels today even with the thermal ridge in place ahead of
the incoming frontal system.  Lawrence is the only location that has
actually reached 105 degrees.  Therefore, also, considering
previously mentioned set up with cloud coverage concerns, it may
also be hard for advisory levels to met over much of the area
tomorrow.  Therefore, have only kept very southeastern counties in
the advisory area for Saturday and confidence in that is also
decreasing at the current time.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Residual convection may linger through Sunday morning across far
east central Kansas. The inverted sfc trough bisects the cwa on
Sunday afternoon while the effective frontal boundary hangs up over
east central areas. Still uncertainties on location of additional
convection by the afternoon dependent upon how quickly the
atmosphere overcomes the stable, morning airmass. The Nam and Ecmwf
are hinting at precip developing further east and south of the CWA
so its conceivable that our area remains mostly dry for the
afternoon. For the time being, I have kept low end chances for the
afternoon. Temperatures gradually fall back to normal values with
readings in the lower 90s.

This active, near normal weather pattern persists throughout the
week as another shortwave trough slowly translates over the high
plains into Nebraska and Kansas Monday through Thursday. The best
chance for more organized thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday night
as the better dynamic lift arrives over the cwa. Temperatures
throughout the week are generally in the low 90s with overnight lows
in the upper 60s. Behind the system Thursday and Friday, temps fall
back into the 80s with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. After 23Z Friday,
there is the potential for a few thunderstorms around the KMHK
terminal which may persist through the evening hours. There may
also be isolated thunderstorms at KTOP and KFOE this evening as
a cold front moves through the area. Overall confidence in timing
and coverage of thunderstorms remains low at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>038-054.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ039-040-055-056-058-
059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Bunker/Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-142015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices range from 100 to 107 degrees across the area this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. They are capable of producing strong gusty winds
along and northwest of a line from Abilene to Holton.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat indices around 100 degrees continue through Saturday
afternoon over far east central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
303 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ010-022-023-132030-
Pottawatomie-Riley-Marshall-
303 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm over Randolph, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Rapids, Waterville, Leonardville, Olsburg, Randolph and Tuttle
Creek Lake.

LAT...LON 3959 9634 3929 9670 3938 9690 3957 9682
      3957 9681 3959 9681 3972 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 209DEG 22KT 3941 9676

jp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
354 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ008-132130-
Republic-
354 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lovewell State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Courtland and Republic.

LAT...LON 4000 9775 3991 9765 3977 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 230DEG 19KT 3985 9803

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
357 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ035-132130-
Dickinson-
357 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Enterprise, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene and Enterprise.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 274 and 284.

LAT...LON 3876 9725 3891 9730 3901 9707 3881 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 250DEG 12KT 3888 9714

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
427 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ008-020-132200-
Republic-Cloud-
427 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN
CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Hardy to near Jamestown.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Belleville, Scandia, Jamestown, Courtland, Norway and
Republic.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9765 3957 9754 3955 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 261DEG 20KT 3997 9795 3961 9788

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
428 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ035-132200-
Dickinson-
428 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles south of Abilene, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm as well as
locally heavy rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Chapman and Enterprise.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 279 and 285.

LAT...LON 3870 9725 3889 9730 3899 9703 3875 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 240DEG 12KT 3881 9722

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
434 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ009-132200-
Washington-
434 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Washington, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Hanover, Morrowville and Hollenberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9681 3977 9681 3975 9717 3989 9721
      4000 9695 4000 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 254DEG 13KT 3985 9710

BD