Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Topeka, KS

229 
WWUS53 KTOP 052355
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
655 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

KSC111-060004-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-180706T0000Z/
Lyon-
655 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3821 9636 3840 9635 3845 9621 3836 9613
      3821 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 054DEG 10KT 3835 9628 

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon into
Friday, with temperatures falling to near average.

A weak surface front stretched along Interstate 70 early this
afternoon with temperatures in the mid 80s north to low 90s south.
The weak surface convergence, coupled with the interaction of
upper level gravity waves emanating from the remnants of
convection in central Nebraska, led to the development of
scattered showers and storms along the I-70 corridor west of
Topeka before 1 pm. The mesoscale environment is characterized by
modest instability (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), but negligible
deep shear owing to a backbuilding upper-level ridge. The result
was a pulse/multi-cell cluster storm mode that is forecast to
continue building southward along its aggregate outflow through
the afternoon, waning somewhat by sunset.

There is a large spread amongst the convective allowing and
convective parameterizing solutions regarding precipitation
chances tonight into Friday. The HRRR/ARW/NMM/NSSL WRF are almost
completely devoid of convection while reverse is true for the
GFS/EC/NAM/RAP/CMC. The latter solutions are hinging on the
development of convection further west that propagates into the
forecast area later in the period. Confidence is higher in the
latter scenario not panning out. However, given the large spread,
have maintained slight to chance POPs through the night, which
wane on Friday as a 1030 mb surface high over the Northern Plains
builds to the south. Northeasterly surface flow upstream of the
ridge will filter cooler air southward for Friday, but highs will
still manage to reach or slightly exceed average values for this
time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

The heat returns for next week with little in the way of
precipitation through midweek.

An expansive, zonal upper-level ridge currently encompassing much
of the eastern and central U.S. retrogrades westward to the Four
Corners by the start of the weekend and then meanders over the
western CONUS for much of the upcoming week. This will limit any
chance for precipitation in the region during this time. Surface
high pressure slides to the east and causes winds to veer to the
south/southeast by the Sunday. WAA ensues with H850 temps of +18
to +24 C resulting in surface temps in the 90s. Heat indices will
likely climb back above 100 degrees by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period with
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon,
primarily along the I-70 corridor. Additional showers and storms
are possible late tonight, but confidence was too low to mention
in the TAFs. Winds will be light and variable today, switching to
the northeast at 5 to 10 kts tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
128 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-061830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
128 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight, mainly along and south of I-70. The
strongest storms may be capable of gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

KSZ054-052345-
Lyon-
625 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 625 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Emporia, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 136.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 125 and 135.

LAT...LON 3851 9615 3838 9605 3830 9620 3845 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 058DEG 10KT 3840 9618

BD