Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Topeka, KS

045 
WWUS53 KTOP 100107 RRA
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
807 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

KSC013-100117-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-180610T0130Z/
Brown-
807 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3976 9534 3987 9579 4000 9579 4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 295DEG 16KT 3991 9558 

$$

Sanders

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Short-term forecast should remain mostly dry with HOT conditions
being the story.

Today, upper flow remains largely anticyclonic over the region with
general subsidence in place and effective boundaries remaining to
the north of the area as the earlier outflow boundary has
effectively modified and mixed out. Cannot rule out an isolated
t-storm across the far northeast closer to low level forcing of
the old outflow boundary but coverage should remain isolated.
Temperatures today have been able to climb into the low 90s
already as mixing has tapped into increasing warm layer temps
aloft which were around 20C per 12Z KTOP RAOB sounding. Heat index
values this afternoon should top out around 102F.

Aside from a small chance of an outflow boundary essentially "back-
dooring" into the region overnight, it appears any chance of precip
is too low to mention at this time as overnight MCS is progged to
stay well north of the area.  In fact, only one member of the short-
term hi-res solutions suggest showers or a storm could develop
overnight into far northeastern Kansas.

For Sunday, the heat should persist as southerly flow increases and
deeper mixing takes place with slightly higher H85 temps in place.
With mid 60s dewpoints still in place, heat index values will still
be in the 98-104F range being just a bit higher than today but still
shy of widespread advisory levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Most recent suite of guidance suggest that the next upper wave
that will move into the Plains Monday will  a cold front into the
region by late day into Monday night. The forcing associated with
the wave will be weak as the area resides on the southern
periphery of the westerlies. Sct t-storms should occur in the
proximity of the front Monday night but coverage is uncertain and
svr chcs appear modest at this point. The area will reside in the
vicinity of a low level boundary Tues into Weds that will act as a
warm front. It appears that upslope flow may act as a trigger
Tuesday into Tuesday night with at least some chcs for a complex
of storms to move across some part of central KS Tues night with
better signals for another round of storms Weds into Weds night.
500mb flow is fcst to be 30-50kts atop a low level veering wind
profile so it would appear that at least some risk for severe
storms does exist on Weds across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. TSRA is expected
to remain to the northeast of TOP and FOE this evening. LLWS is
expected from 07Z-13Z with the increase of the low level jet.
Winds south 10 to 14 kts through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-102045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
in far northeast Kansas. Organized severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There are multiple chances for thunderstorms next week. Strong to
severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon and evening as a
front moves across Kansas. Strong winds and hail would be the
main hazards with this activity. There is another chance for
t-storms mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening when severe
weather may also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep