Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

Biggest story for the short term forecast period will continue to be
the incoming MCS from Nebraska as it slowly moves into and through
the area over the next 4-6 hour time frame and likely continues to
weaken as it does so.

Early this morning, an out-flow boundary began working into the
region along the KS/NE state line around 0630-0700Z with an overall
sub-severe line of convection trailing a bit behind the out-flow as
evident on radar.  Recent obs from CNK and MYZ have recorded wind
gusts of 61 and 49 mph respectively with these storms as they track
SSE.  Some spotter reports align with this thinking as no damage and
only gusty outflow winds have been reported in the 40-50 mph range
(outside of the isolated gust from CNK airport). Some areas (mainly
north of I-70) will probably see a quick 1-2 inches of much needed
rainfall by sunrise. Otherwise, a batch of elevated showers and
storms have formed ahead of the line in response to isentropic
ascent associated with the LLJ and have been further stabilizing the
atmosphere storms are moving into making it harder for the line to
keep any organization.

Showers and few storms may linger through the mid morning hours,
especially over far eastern sections of the forecast area into the
the KC metro area.  The surface synoptic boundary should move
through mid to late morning as the upper trough advances to the
east.  This will dry out the area and subsidence will take over.
Pleasant conditions settle into the area with highs in the low 80s
held down a bit by CAA with some breezy conditions into the late
afternoon.  Overnight lows tonight should be very pleasant in the
50s.  With a dry airmass and T/Td spreads large enough, not
expecting fog as winds keep the low boundary layer slightly mixed as
well.

Sunday should be another pleasant day with highs again into the
middle 80s as heights rebound slightly but an a northerly component
to the wind again keeps temps from being more near the 90 range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

The week ahead will see a low amplitude trough emerge from the
Rockies on Monday, but have kept precip chances low with lift not
expected to be too great and dewpoints still in the 50s.  Overall
broader ridging builds in for the week with temps returning to the
90s and another small chance of needed precipitation late
Wednesday into Thursday as there seems to be a bit more
consistency in the idea that decaying convection may make it to
the area from the High Plains region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

Will go ahead with at TSRA mention at TOP and MHK but confidence
in specifics even in this relatively short term forecast is low.
Still seems better chances are in the eastern terminals so no
prevailing TS at MHK yet. Little changes to remainder of forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
353 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-030900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
353 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Mostly non-severe thunderstorms continue over the entire area
through about mid morning time frame. Gusty outflow
winds, lightning and locally heavy rain will be the primary
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>036-038-039-020900-
Republic-Shawnee-Clay-Pottawatomie-Dickinson-Brown-Washington-Nemaha-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Cloud-Jefferson-Riley-Jackson-Ottawa-Marshall-
256 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POTTAWATOMIE...JACKSON...CLOUD...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN DICKINSON...GEARY...RILEY...
SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...OTTAWA...SOUTHERN NEMAHA...SOUTHERN REPUBLIC...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...BROWN AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 255 AM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Highland to near Havensville to
Scottsville. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph are occurring with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Manhattan, Junction City, Abilene, Concordia, Wamego, Clay
Center, Holton, Hiawatha, Minneapolis, Horton, Valley Falls,
Rossville, Oskaloosa, Blue Rapids, Alma, Westmoreland, Blaine,
Tecumseh and St. Marys.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 166 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to ponding of water on roads. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 9793 3967 9614 4000 9534 3965 9534
      3965 9556 3942 9557 3942 9518 3914 9518
      3906 9550 3891 9550 3887 9558 3888 9737
      3896 9737 3896 9775 3939 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 333DEG 34KT 3984 9531 3949 9605 3954 9795

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     TSTM WND GST     CONCORDIA AIRPORT       39.55N 97.65W
06/02/2018  M61 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

&&

BDRAKE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
353 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-020945-
Shawnee-Clay-Pottawatomie-Dickinson-Franklin-Wabaunsee-Geary-Lyon-
Jefferson-Douglas-Riley-Jackson-Osage-Ottawa-Morris-
353 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...OSAGE...
POTTAWATOMIE...JACKSON...NORTHERN LYON...JEFFERSON...DICKINSON...
GEARY...RILEY...MORRIS...SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...OTTAWA...DOUGLAS AND
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 352 AM CDT, emergency management reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Winchester to 6 miles northeast of
Silver Lake to 3 miles west of Bennington. Movement was southeast at
30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are occurring with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Lawrence, Manhattan, Emporia, Junction City, Ottawa, Abilene,
Baldwin City, Wamego, Holton, Osage City, Herington, Council Grove,
Minneapolis, Carbondale, Valley Falls, Rossville, Oskaloosa, Alma and
Westmoreland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 159 and 198.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 129 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to ponding of water on roads. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 9507 3843 9635 3852 9635 3852 9693
      3861 9693 3861 9737 3896 9737 3896 9768
      3926 9784 3954 9557 3942 9557 3942 9518
      3897 9519 3895 9509 3899 9506 3898 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 325DEG 26KT 3934 9532 3914 9575 3902 9766

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 AM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCE AIRPORT        39.02N 95.22W
06/02/2018  M60 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   ASOS

&&

BDRAKE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
441 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ026-038>040-054>056-058-059-021030-
Coffey-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon-Jefferson-Douglas-Franklin-Osage-
Anderson-
441 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...
SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...ANDERSON...DOUGLAS...OSAGE...COFFEY AND LYON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 440 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 4 miles northeast of Vinland to near
Dunlap. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts around 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Lawrence, Emporia, Ottawa, Baldwin City, Garnett, Osage City,
Burlington, Carbondale, Oskaloosa, Alma, Eskridge, Tecumseh, Eudora,
Richland, Wellsville, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn and Overbrook.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 198.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 330 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 118 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to ponding of water on roads. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9633 3874 9635 3874 9637
      3904 9639 3927 9518 3897 9519 3898 9516
      3895 9509 3898 9508 3899 9506 3898 9506
      3804 9508 3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 334DEG 35KT 3887 9511 3858 9634

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